ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10341 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:31 pm

Im seeing a NE/ENE jog...

There is major flooding in Eastern Port Saint Lucie, the entire city east of US1 seems to be impassable, according to local government
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#10342 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:31 pm

Honestly this is pretty stunning to watch, Wilma held its presentation on this track BUT Fay is actually strenghtneing...this is going to be good for research!

I wonder whether what helped Erin is also playing a part with this system ,clearly can't be developing through normal process, probably got to be enhanced by Baroclinic processes I'd guess?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23008
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10343 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:32 pm

ronjon wrote:
NFLnut wrote:
SoupBone wrote:FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.



So is the NHC biting yet guys?



Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.

Actually the NHC is refering to the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models.


The only global model I could find taking Fay into the Gulf is the GFS. The ECMWF does, of course, but it analyzes Fay in the Keys at 12Z this morning - way off. Has it over Tampa at 12Z tomorrow. Not likely. Canadian is near NHC track. UKMET just south of NHC but inland over FL panhandle. So I wonder what global model(s) the NHC means besides the GFS? Did they notice how badly the EC initialized?
0 likes   

lebron23
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 389
Age: 32
Joined: Sat May 24, 2008 11:58 am
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10344 Postby lebron23 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:32 pm

Question

Why here GFDL has Fay moving toward the gulf coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

but here it goes to Canada

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
0 likes   

User avatar
Just Joshing You
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 512
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:29 am
Location: Nova Scotia

#10345 Postby Just Joshing You » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:32 pm

Elena 1985 did not make landfall on Florida. She was over very hot waters for quite some time.
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

#10346 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:32 pm

I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right? Anyone have any comments on this and what it means?
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10347 Postby paintplaye » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:1hr movement 2026Z-2126Z toward 011 degrees 5.5 kts.

2hr movement 1926Z-2126Z toward 022 degrees at 5.3 kts.



Lets see if the trend continues...
0 likes   

TideJoe
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 155
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:05 pm

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10348 Postby TideJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:1hr movement 2026Z-2126Z toward 011 degrees 5.5 kts.

2hr movement 1926Z-2126Z toward 022 degrees at 5.3 kts.


It'll be interesting to see if the 11 degree average holds the next hour or if it bends back towards the right again.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ground_Zero_92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 292
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: South Hutchinson Island / Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10349 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:33 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Im seeing a NE/ENE jog...

There is major flooding in Eastern Port Saint Lucie, the entire city east of US1 seems to be impassable, according to local government


Yea, we have had a crazy amount of rain just south of you as well. My street is now a flowing river.
0 likes   

User avatar
Just Joshing You
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 512
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:29 am
Location: Nova Scotia

#10350 Postby Just Joshing You » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:34 pm

The GFDL has a 105 KT storm off the coast of Florida.
0 likes   

User avatar
hiflyer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 563
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:24 am
Location: West Broward Florida

#10351 Postby hiflyer » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:34 pm

Gonna be interesting to see this number in a couple of days

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 19, 2008

11.34 ft.



About 3 ft. below historical average for this time of year.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

#10352 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:34 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MS65DW

station reporting 986 and change MB. weaken? not my girl fay
0 likes   

User avatar
leaf blower
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 39
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:01 am

#10353 Postby leaf blower » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:34 pm

Is there any live streaming i can watch?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20023
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re:

#10354 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:34 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right? Anyone have any comments on this and what it means?


I don't have an answer but this loop shows up what I think you're talking about.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

Image
0 likes   

NFLnut
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:37 pm

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10355 Postby NFLnut » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:36 pm

paintplaye wrote:
NFLnut wrote:
SoupBone wrote:FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.



So is the NHC biting yet guys?





Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.


Yes and the GFDL had it going all the way to Canada.




All of them had it going to Canada or NE. But the BAMM and the BAMS had FAY headed straight to Gulf Shores. They were both the far LEFT outliers. At least the GFDL was a little closer to the eventual track, and it adjusted correctly, faster than either of those two.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20023
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10356 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:36 pm

Moving northeast (ish) again. Or a wobble, but nevertheless an excuse to post yet another radar loop. :)

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Just Joshing You
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 512
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:29 am
Location: Nova Scotia

Re: Re:

#10357 Postby Just Joshing You » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:37 pm

tolakram wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right? Anyone have any comments on this and what it means?


I don't have an answer but this loop shows up what I think you're talking about.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

Image


It means conditions are conducive for the rare Category 6 Hurricane to form whilst over land. ::nod::
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#10358 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:37 pm

Once this gets into the waters of the Atlantic if it still has this presentation its pretty obviously going to strengthewn into a hurricane, the GFDL strength is quite possible IMO IF it takes that sort of track.
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10359 Postby paintplaye » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:38 pm

paintplaye wrote:
NFLnut wrote:
SoupBone wrote:FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.



So is the NHC biting yet guys?





Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.


Yes and the GFDL had it going all the way to Canada.




All of them had it going to Canada or NE. But the BAMM and the BAMS had FAY headed straight to Gulf Shores. They were both the far LEFT outliers. At least the GFDL was a little closer to the eventual track, and it adjusted correctly, faster than either of those two.[/quote]

The track has it going to the gulf more though. So what are you trying to say? You are really not helping your case.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10360 Postby Steve Cosby » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:Did they notice how badly the EC initialized?


Are you kidding?

:lol:
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests