ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[ColdFusion]

Question

Why here GFDL has Fay moving toward the gulf coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

but here it goes to Canada

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

One is Faye, the other is 94L

[txwatcher91]

I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right? Anyone have any comments on this and what it means?

I don't have an answer but this loop shows up what I think you're talking about.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

Yeah, that one shows it some, the nasa IR shows it very well. So what could this mean about track? Most of the models keep it fairly weak, and if it strengthened it would follow the other clouds out west that are moving NE, wouldn't it? Or would it still follow the Low level flow?

[Ivanhater]

The only global model I could find taking Fay into the Gulf is the GFS. The ECMWF does, of course, but it analyzes Fay in the Keys at 12Z this morning - way off. Has it over Tampa at 12Z tomorrow. Not likely. Canadian is near NHC track. UKMET just south of NHC but inland over FL panhandle. So I wonder what global model(s) the NHC means besides the GFS? Did they notice how badly the EC initialized?

I was told the higher resolution Euro initialized just fine

[funster]

OK, one more pic...this is a pile of red ants floating in the flooded street...nasty

amazing display of courage, those poor ants on the fringes must be dead, all so the higher ups can continue on with the species LOL

any way i am looking for rainfall estimates

miami doppler shows 10-12 inch estimates over a nice chunk of central palm beach from about delray to lantana streaking NW, but on the melbourne site it only shows about 6 , so i'm confused.

Form of .... a fish.

[KWT]

Most models still suggest this only getting into the Atlantic and not the gulf, long term motion suggests emergence fairly close to the Cape, however obviously wobbles will make a difference. If this can get 24hrs over water despite heat content being pretty small with a good structure and upper conditions this could strengthen pretty well.

[tolakram]

Does Fay's contribution to the ACE index count over land?

[Just Joshing You]

OK, one more pic...this is a pile of red ants floating in the flooded street...nasty

amazing display of courage, those poor ants on the fringes must be dead, all so the higher ups can continue on with the species LOL

any way i am looking for rainfall estimates

miami doppler shows 10-12 inch estimates over a nice chunk of central palm beach from about delray to lantana streaking NW, but on the melbourne site it only shows about 6 , so i'm confused.

Form of .... a fish.

I was thinking...

The snack that smiles back, Goldfish!

[Steve Cosby]

What's striking about the 5PM Discussion is that it was writing by Lixion Avilia - who seems to downplay and be ultra cool in everything he writes.

That actually makes it more eyecatching.

Thoughts?

Bastardi is still predicting Category 2 into the Carolinas - maybe he wasn't that far off in the beginning.

[eastcoastFL]

anyone have an idea of what port st lucie has to look forward to? i think if she moves more east we are back in the mess.

[tolakram]

Bingo.

Wind shift at this station northwest of Okeechobee City.

min pressure 986MB

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MS65DW


Saved image:

[Sabanic]

Most models still suggest this only getting into the Atlantic and not the gulf, long term motion suggests emergence fairly close to the Cape, however obviously wobbles will make a difference. If this can get 24hrs over water despite heat content being pretty small with a good structure and upper conditions this could strengthen pretty well.

The NHC says that they may have to adjust their track southward at the next update. If they do that it will more than likely be in the Gulf

[Just Joshing You]

What's striking about the 5PM Discussion is that it was writing by Lixion Avilia - who seems to downplay and be ultra cool in everything he writes.

That actually makes it more eyecatching.

Thoughts?

Bastardi is still predicting Category 2 into the Carolinas - maybe he wasn't that far off in the beginning.

He was forecasting it to miss Florida and hit the Carolinas, not Hit Florida, trek across Florida, and then hit the Carolina's.

[Agua]

Bingo.

Wind shift at this station northwest of Okeechobee City.

min pressure 986MB

Pretty cool. Thanks.

[vbhoutex]

I am officially throwing my hands in the air!!!! Fay's signature on the radar has definitely imrpved since the last post I made!!!

[Nexus]

Eastern components of the inner rain bands now reaching the coast at Ft. Pierce. Won't be much longer before she emerges into the Atlantic, barring a drastic course change.

[fci]

What's striking about the 5PM Discussion is that it was writing by Lixion Avilia - who seems to downplay and be ultra cool in everything he writes.

That actually makes it more eyecatching.

Thoughts?

Bastardi is still predicting Category 2 into the Carolinas - maybe he wasn't that far off in the beginning.

He was forecasting it to miss Florida and hit the Carolinas, not Hit Florida, trek across Florida, and then hit the Carolina's.

2 words:

S E L E C T I V E
C O R R E C T N E S S

something to hang your hat on and say "See, I was right" (or at least paritally)

[tallywx]

Imagine how strong Fay would be right now had the FL Peninsula not been underneath her today. All the other ingredients seemed to be in place for rapid intensification.

[bob rulz]

So basically Fay couldn't intensify while over the water despite conditions mostly being in its favor, and now that it's over land it bombs out? Insane. I hope someone somewhere, whether within the NHC or not, studies this extensively and tries to explain this. This is just insane!

[Just Joshing You]

Imagine how strong Fay would be right now had the FL Peninsula not been underneath her today. All the other ingredients seemed to be in place for rapid intensification.

She probably would be a remnant low by now LOL

[AdamFirst]

Estimates of standing water at 4-feet deep in Port Saint Lucie.

St. Lucie County Public Works are using dump trucks to take people home.