lebron23 wrote:Question
Why here GFDL has Fay moving toward the gulf coast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
but here it goes to Canada
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
One is Faye, the other is 94L
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lebron23 wrote:Question
Why here GFDL has Fay moving toward the gulf coast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
but here it goes to Canada
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
tolakram wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right? Anyone have any comments on this and what it means?
I don't have an answer but this loop shows up what I think you're talking about.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html
wxman57 wrote:
The only global model I could find taking Fay into the Gulf is the GFS. The ECMWF does, of course, but it analyzes Fay in the Keys at 12Z this morning - way off. Has it over Tampa at 12Z tomorrow. Not likely. Canadian is near NHC track. UKMET just south of NHC but inland over FL panhandle. So I wonder what global model(s) the NHC means besides the GFS? Did they notice how badly the EC initialized?
cpdaman wrote:gtsmith wrote:OK, one more pic...this is a pile of red ants floating in the flooded street...nasty
amazing display of courage, those poor ants on the fringes must be dead, all so the higher ups can continue on with the species LOL
any way i am looking for rainfall estimates
miami doppler shows 10-12 inch estimates over a nice chunk of central palm beach from about delray to lantana streaking NW, but on the melbourne site it only shows about 6 , so i'm confused.
funster wrote:cpdaman wrote:gtsmith wrote:OK, one more pic...this is a pile of red ants floating in the flooded street...nasty
amazing display of courage, those poor ants on the fringes must be dead, all so the higher ups can continue on with the species LOL
any way i am looking for rainfall estimates
miami doppler shows 10-12 inch estimates over a nice chunk of central palm beach from about delray to lantana streaking NW, but on the melbourne site it only shows about 6 , so i'm confused.
Form of .... a fish.
KWT wrote:Most models still suggest this only getting into the Atlantic and not the gulf, long term motion suggests emergence fairly close to the Cape, however obviously wobbles will make a difference. If this can get 24hrs over water despite heat content being pretty small with a good structure and upper conditions this could strengthen pretty well.
Steve Cosby wrote:What's striking about the 5PM Discussion is that it was writing by Lixion Avilia - who seems to downplay and be ultra cool in everything he writes.
That actually makes it more eyecatching.
Thoughts?
Bastardi is still predicting Category 2 into the Carolinas - maybe he wasn't that far off in the beginning.
tolakram wrote:Bingo.
Wind shift at this station northwest of Okeechobee City.
min pressure 986MB
extradited wrote:Steve Cosby wrote:What's striking about the 5PM Discussion is that it was writing by Lixion Avilia - who seems to downplay and be ultra cool in everything he writes.
That actually makes it more eyecatching.
Thoughts?
Bastardi is still predicting Category 2 into the Carolinas - maybe he wasn't that far off in the beginning.
He was forecasting it to miss Florida and hit the Carolinas, not Hit Florida, trek across Florida, and then hit the Carolina's.
tallywx wrote:Imagine how strong Fay would be right now had the FL Peninsula not been underneath her today. All the other ingredients seemed to be in place for rapid intensification.
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