Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Bluefrog]

double crap .. yeah ron ...thanks ... not making us feel good at all

[JonathanBelles]

Get the kids away from my tracking chart!!

[tolakram]

It's a couple of wavy lines ...

[Jason_B]

I'll believe it when she makes that WNW turn.

[KWT]

GFS ensembles aren't great for tropical cyclones they simple lack the resolution, they run at only half the resolution of the first 180hrs of the GFS op runs and thus see a weaker system.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS ensembles aren't great for tropical cyclones they simple lack the resolution, they run at only half the resolution of the first 180hrs of the GFS op runs and thus see a weaker system.

Yes but, you throw in the EURO, UK, e.t.c... and you pay more and more attention if they want to head a Hurricane your way.

[caneman]

Well, we just got our first good amount of rain from this little witch after making us sweat it out. Back door hurricanes love Tampa Bay even though the front on ones don't so I say bring it on.

[ronjon]

18Z GFS at 36 hrs - stalled off Melbourne

[deltadog03]

Ok, here is my take....While a track back into the gom is plausable...I don't think its likely (ATTT) Why?? Actually look at the GFS and NAM...They BOTH keep FAY on the mainland of FL for nearly 24 more hours...(Until 18z tomorrow) 00z euro is not bad. 12z euro, I am throwing out because it initialized her down by key west....Just my op. folks.

[ronjon]

60 hrs heading west.

[TexasSam]

GFS Ensemble Plot - Westward Bound - I'd say so.

Is that a real map? or is someone just pulling my leg?

[KWT]

So in other words Deltadog you think that because this is moving faster its clearly more latched onto the upper trough then the GFS progs as its moving faster.

Still its getting harder to totally ignore the track.

[GeneratorPower]

It's a couple of wavy lines ...

Oh, that's funny if you ever saw Ghostbusters.

[ronjon]

72 hrs - West further near FL west coast.

[Brent]

GFS Ensemble Plot - Westward Bound - I'd say so.

LOL

[jinftl]

do the paths that stop in the middle of the Gulf imply dissipation?

GFS Ensemble Plot - Westward Bound - I'd say so.

[deltadog03]

Yes, think about it this way...(IT is obviously possible that it goes back into the gom) but, GFS and NAM sit this in this very spot its in NOW, for another 24 hours...Do yall think that it is really going to do that?

[txwatcher91]

Yes, think about it this way...(IT is obviously possible that it goes back into the gom) but, GFS and NAM sit this in this very spot its in NOW, for another 24 hours...Do yall think that it is really going to do that?

One potential problem with the GFS is it initializes the pressure around 1002-1004mb, hard to tell exactly what it is but is way to high, so this could effect the output quite a bit, although I have no clue how it would affect it.

[ronjon]

On the GFS Ensemble Plot - Actually my 5 year son got creative on my MAC PAD... Seriously, the GFS ensemble models are multiple runs that are slightly perturbed in regards to their parameters. Kind of a monte carlo type run where one can see the all the different tracks using the same model code (GFS). Don't get lost in the individual lines - visualize what an average track might be of all the runs - in this case, it would pretty much go west.

[Rainband]

Our local Met Dennis Phillips said that this is entirely possible and the key will be to see how far this makes it north when it exits. It's all depending on when and where the high builds east... He said this storm has been a surprise from the beginning and actually strengthened over land and developed an eye for two hours. Weird storm.