Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
double crap .. yeah ron ...thanks ... not making us feel good at all
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re:
KWT wrote:GFS ensembles aren't great for tropical cyclones they simple lack the resolution, they run at only half the resolution of the first 180hrs of the GFS op runs and thus see a weaker system.
Yes but, you throw in the EURO, UK, e.t.c... and you pay more and more attention if they want to head a Hurricane your way.
0 likes
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
Well, we just got our first good amount of rain from this little witch after making us sweat it out. Back door hurricanes love Tampa Bay even though the front on ones don't so I say bring it on.
0 likes
- deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
Ok, here is my take....While a track back into the gom is plausable...I don't think its likely (ATTT) Why?? Actually look at the GFS and NAM...They BOTH keep FAY on the mainland of FL for nearly 24 more hours...(Until 18z tomorrow) 00z euro is not bad. 12z euro, I am throwing out because it initialized her down by key west....Just my op. folks.
0 likes
- TexasSam
- Category 2
- Posts: 573
- Age: 66
- Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 12:16 am
- Location: Port Arthur, Texas
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
ronjon wrote:GFS Ensemble Plot - Westward Bound - I'd say so.
Is that a real map? or is someone just pulling my leg?
0 likes
- GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
tolakram wrote:It's a couple of wavy lines ...
Oh, that's funny if you ever saw Ghostbusters.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38088
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
ronjon wrote:GFS Ensemble Plot - Westward Bound - I'd say so.
LOL


0 likes
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
do the paths that stop in the middle of the Gulf imply dissipation?
ronjon wrote:GFS Ensemble Plot - Westward Bound - I'd say so.
0 likes
- deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1498
- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm
Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Yes, think about it this way...(IT is obviously possible that it goes back into the gom) but, GFS and NAM sit this in this very spot its in NOW, for another 24 hours...Do yall think that it is really going to do that?
One potential problem with the GFS is it initializes the pressure around 1002-1004mb, hard to tell exactly what it is but is way to high, so this could effect the output quite a bit, although I have no clue how it would affect it.

0 likes
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
On the GFS Ensemble Plot - Actually my 5 year son got creative on my MAC PAD...
Seriously, the GFS ensemble models are multiple runs that are slightly perturbed in regards to their parameters. Kind of a monte carlo type run where one can see the all the different tracks using the same model code (GFS). Don't get lost in the individual lines - visualize what an average track might be of all the runs - in this case, it would pretty much go west.

0 likes
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
Our local Met Dennis Phillips said that this is entirely possible and the key will be to see how far this makes it north when it exits. It's all depending on when and where the high builds east... He said this storm has been a surprise from the beginning and actually strengthened over land and developed an eye for two hours. Weird storm.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests