ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CronkPSU]

Holy smokes...For the first time in quite a while there is a section of Lake O that isn't getting rained on. I wonder what the lake level is going to be when the dust all settles.

SFT

don't think we will have to be worrying about dust here in florida again anytime soon...anyone Fay missed the first time, looks to get drenched on the boomerang

[SouthFLTropics]

Did NWS Melbourne Radar just get taken out by high winds. The loop refreshed and the last couple frames it goes completely blank. What the heck...

Edit: it appears to have corrected itself...

SFT

[Sanibel]

Nope. Still NNE towards Melbourne. The center may be tilting because of weakness or seeking water.

Fantasy land: Wider eye goes right to hurricane offshore.

[rainydaze]

what's next? is fay gonna figure out a way to develop and maintain 2 eyes?? she's already figured out how to gain intensity and organization from land...

Yeah... No kidding.

She has become self aware and is evolivng quickly

[Clipper96]

Down to 45 kts on 10pm advisory. Still forecasting a hurricane. Not likely.

I agree, the inner core is in the process of collapsing. However, I think it will be back over water before it can completely collapse, unlike Isidore, which stayed over the Yucatan for at least a day after its inner core collapsed. There still appears to be a remnant "inner" eyewall on radar. Indeed, convection is already starting to re-intensify a bit over the center. Surface obs still show decent convergent cyclonic rotation. We'll see.

Yeah; there's some 45-50dbz returns on that core cell now, as it approaches open water.

Fay is like the program in the movie "Wargames": The only winning move is not to forecast.

[bostonseminole]

Nope. Still NNE towards Melbourne. The center may be tilting because of weakness or seeking water.

Fantasy land: Wider eye goes right to hurricane offshore.

NNE?

[Sean in New Orleans]

No clue what this system will do...very interesting system, but, not shocking considering the way the steering patterns collapsed and changed. I'm certainly not ruling out this system re-emerging in the GOM. I really hope it doesn't..it could spell very nasty conditions for New Orleans over the weekend and I'd really much rather just some rain. On the other hand, this could go a bit further North and answer months long prayers for areas of the SE. This one really has to be watched closely, IMO. Hope all in Florida did well and hopefully the soaking rains did your plants and gardens well.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like on radar that she just got on I-95 in Sebastian and is headed North. Maybe she is afraid of the water again.

SFT

[Praxus]

can you imagine?

[LaunchGal]

Good evening, all. I arrived safely in East Central Florida this afternoon. So far here my 10-meter weather station has been recording steady 15 to 25 mph sustained winds with frequent 30 to 40 mph gusts (40 max so far).

From radar and satellite imagery, Fay's center is very near the Florida East Coast, southwest of Palm Bay. Recently, deeper convection has begun to fire northeast of the center and around Fay's immediate circulation. I suspect that the storm will strengthen rather quickly once it begins to move over water, perhaps reaching 60-knot intensity by midday Wednesday.

Overnight, I anticipate continued squally conditions across East Central Florida coastal counties. Conditions will improve for areas south of Vero Beach. Onshore moving squalls for Brevard and eventually Volusia counties seem to have plenty of wind-energy aloft, but there's not been much active transport to the surface. If Fay begins to deepen and additional more intense squalls form, then I expect this wind energy to readily reach the surface, producing wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph.

- Jay
(now near KSC, FL)

That must've been quite a trip! Glad you're safe.

The off-coast strengthening does not bode well for the coastal communities already struggling with erosion problems from the last few seasons...

[Sanibel]

Yeah, the small center is getting obscured by clouds. The big center is being pulled more NE towards water but the little one is still going NNE towards Melbourne and should take a little longer to get back over water.

[SouthFLTropics]

can you imagine?

Is that Fay camped out in the North Gulf waiting for the next trough to sweep her back across the state? If it is then the answer is no, I can't imagine!!!

SFT

[LaunchGal]

Looks like on radar that she just got on I-95 in Sebastian and is headed North. Maybe she is afraid of the water again.

SFT

She could've taken the turnpike as the tolls were lifted

[SouthFLTropics]

Gotta hit the hay everyone...Every body stay safe and dry out there and we'll chat tomorrow. It's gonna be another interesting day.

SFT

[Nexus]

Center appears to be crossing I-95 west of Sebastian, and will likely emerge over the Atlantic short of Melbourne within 90 min.

[funster]

Does anyone know when the first recon is planned for crazy Fay once she is completely back out over the water?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'll stay awake till she emerges over the Atlantic. Wonder what she'll do next. Collapse? Intensify? Teleport to the EPAC?

[Sanibel]

Notice the convection bands on the SE that "knife" in towards the center on a different angle than the others. This is sometimes the sign of a storm about to get stronger (not always but there's a good example happening right now if you are interested)

[HurricaneHunter914]

Could the fact that she's emerging over water during DMAX have any affect on her?

[funster]

Notice the convection bands on the SE that "knife" in towards the center on a different angle than the others. This is sometimes the sign of a storm about to get stronger (not always but there's a good example happening right now if you are interested)

It looks like Fay is already trying to consolidate again. Some new outer rain bands are forming and other ones are getting more intense.