ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Liberty30]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time at this. Like, what are inds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

Tom Terry (Orlando ABC meteorologist) called out the Seminole Co. Public Schools for being open tomorrow for this on his 11:00 forecast.

Just spoke with a family member in the Longwood area. He said that it was currently the worst it had been yet for his particular area.

[AL Chili Pepper]

OMG...just noticed tonight HWRF...GOES SW to almost due west of Tampa...THEN WNW...that doesnt look good...we wont pay attention to that!

Yeah, but it weakens it to almost nothing.

[CronkPSU]

with as large as the CoC is right now, once it does get moving, it may only be 6-8 hours before part of that CoC is over the gulf of Mexico...that thing will take up half the width of the state if it goes West

[Sanibel]

Wicked deep red IR in band. Would suggest hurricane on a better track.

[CronkPSU]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time at this. Like, what are inds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

Tom Terry (Orlando ABC meteorologist) called out the Seminole Co. Public Schools for being open tomorrow for this on his 11:00 forecast.

Just spoke with a family member in the Longwood area. He said that it was currently the worst it had been yet for his particular area.

I'm up here in NW Orange county and we just had some of our strongest winds, been raining for about 7 hours straight now...and the thing does look like it is coming right at us and we will be in the bad part just when the kids will eb going to school

[cpdaman]

OMG...just noticed tonight HWRF...GOES SW to almost due west of Tampa...THEN WNW...that doesnt look good...we wont pay attention to that!

i would be paying attention to it

look we have one thing fairly certain right now and that is the s. western end of the ridge was being "rounded" by the ULL in the plains, causing the western perhiphery to indicate a WNW motion once fay is past say 85-86 west. However cancelling a GOM threat based on that discounts the chance she may go WSW first!

nobody has answered the .....at least four times i have brought up the east coast trough digging more , i was thinking this would erode away the SE side of the ridge and allow for a WSW motion

go to the water vapor (it's linked a couple lines down) and (ignore the last frame because the whole globe jumps right lol so "X" out 3:45)

in fact X out everything besides 1:15 and 3:15 (there was a two hour gap between new shots then anyway) now look at SE virginia and NE NC. between 115 and 315 you can see the edge of the trough AGAIN making progress southward .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

and this is at a longitude barely to her east, (note the short wave digging down thru new england around the n-s oriented low over the maritime) so that tells me the trough is not done digging, although i don't think it will make much more progess S. west, probably south though on it's western periphery. I think this could be a catalyst for her WSW move, and i'm not sure that models were counting on this. or perhaps i am a rambling moron, (and this is the last time i bring up the trough lol) although should it really dig and cut off the SE side of the ridge i would think there may be (given that situation) a chance she could drift East ward instead

[THead]

the SW quad is just dumping a ton of rain.. this is incredible... non stop raining.. this thing better start moving and soon

Aint it tho? Been trying to get some reports from anyone in that area........that hasn't floated away yet. The radar storm totals are showing 15+ inches in some areas there, but I'm not sure how accurate that is, could be even more than that. Scary. Hope everyone is prepared and safe.

[Sanibel]

There's real energy out there. Season could be changing to better conditions.

[paintplaye]

OMG...just noticed tonight HWRF...GOES SW to almost due west of Tampa...THEN WNW...that doesnt look good...we wont pay attention to that!

i would be paying attention to it

look we have one thing fairly certain right now and that is the s. western end of the ridge was being "rounded" by the ULL in the plains, causing the western perhiphery to indicate a WNW motion once fay is past say 85-86 west. However cancelling a GOM threat based on that discounts the chance she may go WSW first!

nobody has answered the .....at least four times i have brought up the east coast trough digging more , i was thinking this would erode away the SE side of the ridge and allow for a WSW motion

go to the water vapor (it's linked a couple lines down) and (ignore the last frame because the whole globe jumps right lol so "X" out 3:45)

in fact X out everything besides 1:15 and 3:15 (there was a two hour gap between new shots then anyway) now look at SE virginia and NE NC. between 115 and 315 you can see the edge of the trough still making progress southward .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

and this is at a longitude to fay's west, (note the short wave digging down thru new england around the n-s oriented low over the maritime) so that tells me the trough is not done digging, although i don't think it will make much more progess S. west, probably south though on it's western periphery. I think this could be a catalyst for her WSW move, and i'm not sure that models were counting on this. or perhaps i am a rambling moron, (and this is the last time i bring up the trough lol)

Buuttttttttt the longer it takes the more time the high has time to recover. The ULL has been predicted to weaken. We will have to see if it does and if it moves out of the way.

[paintplaye]

Wicked deep red IR in band. Would suggest hurricane on a better track.

A VERY lopsided system. Whoa that west side is going to be a monster.

[Frank P]

area just east of Ocala and Orlando are just getting hammered with rain... tampa radar shows it better than melbourne

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... w&loop=yes

[MHurricanes]

It is raining cats and dogs here in Altamonte Springs (15 minutes north of Orlando). We expect severe flooding.

By the way, does Fay appear to be intensifying?

- MHurricanes

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time at this. Like, what are inds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

Tom Terry (Orlando ABC meteorologist) called out the Seminole Co. Public Schools for being open tomorrow for this on his 11:00 forecast.

Just spoke with a family member in the Longwood area. He said that it was currently the worst it had been yet for his particular area.

And it's too late to cancel. Many are sleeping right now and will probably miss the news tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, hundreds of kids will be waiting for the bus during Fay's worst.

[cpdaman]

paintplaye i didn't understand your response, the longer what takes? fay to get west? yes she may take her sweet time and the western periphery of the ridge could build back down and west a tad (but that would only strengthen my point from my post)

[MGC]

It appears to me that Fay is stationary or just drifting west. I just checked Daytona airport and last hour they were reporting a north wind so the eye was not over the airport then. Hopefully Fay will get moving soon and let the area dry out a bit. This is starting to remind me of Hurricane Danny that sat on top of Mobile Bay for quiet a while.....MGC

[Innotech]

its still not moving.

[paintplaye]

paintplaye i didn't understand your response, the longer what takes? fay to get west? yes she may take her sweet time and the western periphery of the ridge could build back down and west a tad (but that would only strengthen my point from my post)

How if that happened the west movement would continue.

[cmdebbie]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time at this. Like, what are inds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

We are in Seminole County as well and my kids will NOT be going to school tomorrow if conditions are the same as they are now. No way would I allow them on a bus and I certainly am not driving my SUV in these conditions either.

As far as I know, Orange County still has school tomorrow also. Does anyone know if this is correct?

[AL Chili Pepper]

OMG...just noticed tonight HWRF...GOES SW to almost due west of Tampa...THEN WNW...that doesnt look good...we wont pay attention to that!

i would be paying attention to it

look we have one thing fairly certain right now and that is the s. western end of the ridge was being "rounded" by the ULL in the plains, causing the western perhiphery to indicate a WNW motion once fay is past say 85-86 west. However cancelling a GOM threat based on that discounts the chance she may go WSW first!

nobody has answered the .....at least four times i have brought up the east coast trough digging more , i was thinking this would erode away the SE side of the ridge and allow for a WSW motion

go to the water vapor (it's linked a couple lines down) and (ignore the last frame because the whole globe jumps right lol so "X" out 3:45)

in fact X out everything besides 1:15 and 3:15 (there was a two hour gap between new shots then anyway) now look at SE virginia and NE NC. between 115 and 315 you can see the edge of the trough still making progress southward .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

and this is at a longitude to fay's west, (note the short wave digging down thru new england around the n-s oriented low over the maritime) so that tells me the trough is not done digging, although i don't think it will make much more progess S. west, probably south though on it's western periphery. I think this could be a catalyst for her WSW move, and i'm not sure that models were counting on this. or perhaps i am a rambling moron, (and this is the last time i bring up the trough lol)

Buuttttttttt the longer it takes the more time the high has time to recover. The ULL has been predicted to weaken. We will have to see if it does and if it moves out of the way.

That ULL in the southern plains is decaying and is well on it's way out. You can see what's left of the energy (rotation) in Arkansas right now and headed NE around the ridge.

[Frank P]

It appears to me that Fay is stationary or just drifting west. I just checked Daytona airport and last hour they were reporting a north wind so the eye was not over the airport then. Hopefully Fay will get moving soon and let the area dry out a bit. This is starting to remind me of Hurricane Danny that sat on top of Mobile Bay for quiet a while.....MGC

I was thinking the same about Danny.. he dumped a ton of rain in Mobile... this might be worse if it doesn't start moving... last 15 minutes of radar loops don't show much movement... with some impressive convection on the west side of the storm