PTPatrick wrote:OMG...just noticed tonight HWRF...GOES SW to almost due west of Tampa...THEN WNW...that doesnt look good...we wont pay attention to that!
i would be paying attention to it
look we have one thing fairly certain right now and that is the s. western end of the ridge was being "rounded" by the ULL in the plains, causing the western perhiphery to indicate a WNW motion once fay is past say 85-86 west. However cancelling a GOM threat based on that discounts the chance she may go WSW first!
nobody has answered the .....at least four times i have brought up the east coast trough digging more , i was thinking this would erode away the SE side of the ridge and allow for a WSW motion
go to the water vapor (it's linked a couple lines down) and (ignore the last frame because the whole globe jumps right lol so "X" out 3:45)
in fact X out everything besides 1:15 and 3:15 (there was a two hour gap between new shots then anyway) now look at SE virginia and NE NC. between 115 and 315 you can see the edge of the trough AGAIN making progress southward .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html and this is at a longitude barely to her east, (note the short wave digging down thru new england around the n-s oriented low over the maritime) so that tells me the trough is not done digging, although i don't think it will make much more progess S. west, probably south though on it's western periphery. I think this could be a catalyst for her WSW move, and i'm not sure that models were counting on this. or perhaps i am a rambling moron, (and this is the last time i bring up the trough lol) although should it really dig and cut off the SE side of the ridge i would think there may be (given that situation) a chance she could drift East ward instead