ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

Based on ground obs.

[tolakram]

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

[Steve]

>>Could Fay be trying to form a new center closer to the gulf? Or is that big band of convection out in the gulf pulling it? Looking at radar.

Hard to say. Was just looking at the visible floater loop and wondering whether it was heading WNW or if this was a possiblity. The only thing I can get is by zooming in the 1 hour total and figuring at least some of the center is E and SE of Perry. FWIW, nasty feeder band running along the coast right now from Daytona up through southern Duval County. Nasty stuff there. Outer fringes brought numerous tornado warnings to coastal South Carolina last night, so those are nothing to play with.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Jason_B]

Weird, center doesn't look that far south on radar. Then again probably shouldn't be using radar to determine where the center is.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Fay just doesn't want to quit, and she still looks amazing after all this time, even with being a land-lover.

[Frank P]

Based on ground obs.

From what I can tell looking at multiple radars that's pretty close in my opinion.. might be a tad more to the west but still hard to imagine how this COC won't get a least a little taste of the GOM... setting up to be a really crappy weekend along the NGOM

[mutley]

Based on ground obs.

I guess ground obs don't lie, but radar can.

[mutley]

Based on ground obs.

From what I can tell looking at multiple radars that's pretty close in my opinion.. might be a tad more to the west but still hard to imagine how this COC won't get a least a little taste of the GOM... setting up to be a really crappy weekend along the NGOM

I think your right. Should very interesting to watch the evolution, if any, when she gets over water. Actually, Fay has been an interesting storm all along.

[Steve]

>>setting up to be a really crappy weekend along the NGOM

I suggested to Ivanhater last night that he ice up the brews. In your case, I'm going to have to go ahead and recommend you check the whiskey supply for mint julips at the Pell house.

Gonna hit the store tonight just in case I'll be consuming a few cold ones on Sunday for any outlying feeder bands we might see down in Lafourche.

Steve

[xironman]

Tallahassee radar shows the spin pretty close to the NHC position west of Gainesville http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=tlh&loop=yes. It is actually close to some convection.

[Javlin]

>>setting up to be a really crappy weekend along the NGOM

I suggested to Ivanhater last night that he ice up the brews. In your case, I'm going to have to go ahead and recommend you check the whiskey supply for mint julips at the Pell house.

Gonna hit the store tonight just in case I'll be consuming a few cold ones on Sunday for any outlying feeder bands we might see down in Lafourche.

Steve

Didn't you get the invite Steve?shinding at Frank's place Sunday you're invited Kevin

[HURAKAN]

Gainesville is reporting winds from the SE, which means that the center is to its SW. If the center was to the west of Gainesville, you would expect wind to be blowing from the south.

[gboudx]

>>setting up to be a really crappy weekend along the NGOM

I suggested to Ivanhater last night that he ice up the brews. In your case, I'm going to have to go ahead and recommend you check the whiskey supply for mint julips at the Pell house.

Gonna hit the store tonight just in case I'll be consuming a few cold ones on Sunday for any outlying feeder bands we might see down in Lafourche.

Steve

Didn't you get the invite Steve?shinding at Frank's place Sunday you're invited Kevin

Steve rolls hard. You may not know what you're in for.

[JonathanBelles]

The Visible looks like somebody put shaving cream all over Florida and Georgia.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Water levels:

Dunnellon north of Tampa is near Flood Stage, Deland to the east of Dunnellon is in Action Stage.

There are no other flooding reports in northern Florida based on meter readings, although water levels are steadily rising on many as Fay moves on through. The Suwannee river is rapidly rising however.

For anybody checking the water meter page on NOAA, a meter in Louisiana is reporting moderate flooding, but this is due to an error. So no, Fay has not sent a huge amount of rain all the way to Louisiana yet.

EDIT: Missed out on Macclenny at northeast Florida. It's at flood stage now, and expected to enter Moderate Stage.

[Frank P]

>>setting up to be a really crappy weekend along the NGOM

I suggested to Ivanhater last night that he ice up the brews. In your case, I'm going to have to go ahead and recommend you check the whiskey supply for mint julips at the Pell house.

Gonna hit the store tonight just in case I'll be consuming a few cold ones on Sunday for any outlying feeder bands we might see down in Lafourche.

Steve

Steve/Jav, old pals.. you two always have an open invite to the Pell beach house .. got a real good stock of Crown which I'll toast to a feedband or two on the front porch if we happen to get any pass through the area this weekend.....

I actually cancelled a trip this weekend to TN because of Fay.. ya never know, besides I didn't want to drive in torrential rain coming home on Sun or Mon...

[Enzo Aquarius]

1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
NORTH CENTRAL CANDLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
JENKINS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1128 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF HUNTERS TO 7 MILES WEST OF
PORTAL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES EAST OF SYLVANIA
TO 9 MILES NORTH OF METTER...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 32 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
HUNTERS...PORTAL...
ROCKY FORD...ALTMAN...
SYLVANIA...
WOODCLIFF...SCARBORO...
HILLTONIA...

[Sanibel]

5 minute downpour and thunder from Fay over us.

Crumbling center headed WNW on NHC track.

[xironman]

Gainesville is reporting winds from the SE, which means that the center is to its SW. If the center was to the west of Gainesville, you would expect wind to be blowing from the south.

You are correct my west was an approximation. Here is where I was talking about, red dot, a bit SW.

[ronjon]

Looks like the center is moving slowly west in northern Levy County - about 20-30 miles north of Cedar Key. Nice convective burst over the west side of the center in the NE GOM - she's getting close now - maybe 20 or 30 miles from water. Overall oblong shape (W-E) of circulation seems to showing how hard high pressure is pushing down on Fay from the north.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php