ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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srainhoutx
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12861 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:12 pm

tolakram wrote:...CENTER OF FAY EMERGES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105
KM...EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

Image


With VDM fix, W sure seems to be the trend. Hmmm
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#12862 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:14 pm

I see convection increasing around that new center fix on Radar.
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#12863 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:15 pm

>>Hmmm... new VDM: 29.41 N, 83.51 W

About a half of a degree east and south of the previous advisory. I'm next to positive that be they meso-vortexes or just embedded spins, Fay's center runs from offshore of the Big Bend into southern Georgia. You can see clouds moving north, south east and west around that general turning "center." So to me, and I don't care if this is in the middle or lower levels of the atmosphere, it's just a tropical low pressure bringnig a lot of rain to a lot of people from a different type of weather pattern. Rain starting to pile up throughout the central panhandle counties which should include a fairly decent swath of 10"+ before their threat is gone (more with inflow off the Gulf in the coming days) with maybe some 'event' totals in excess of 15" down that way.

Steve
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12864 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:15 pm

NWS has increased chance of rain to 40% on Sunday and 50% on Sunday night for New Orleans, so, maybe we'll get some moisture before Fay possibly is lifted out of the area. NWS Discussion in New Orleans:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE DETERIORATING TREND
SETS IN FROM EAST TO WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM FAY TREKS WESTWARD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR. IN COORDINATION
WITH KMOB WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR HARRISON AND JACKSON
COUNTIES TO BLEND WITH THEIR INTERIOR COUNTIES. IN TIME...MORE
COUNTIES/PARISHES MAY BE ADDED FARTHER WEST BUT THIS SHOULD BE
AFTER 36 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EVIDENCE OF CLOUD EROSION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW...BUT
AT SOME POINT THE BULK OF CENTRAL MOISTURE AROUND FAY WILL GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH A WARM RAIN PROCESS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BECOME QUITE HEALTHY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND PARTICULARLY INTO SOUTH ALABAMA. IN THE FLOOD
WATCH AREA...AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY COULD BE AN IMPROVING TREND IF FAY DOES INDEED GET LIFTED
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE 40 PERCENT
AREAWIDE AT THIS TIME BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF FAY
SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS...WHICH IS STILL A VIABLE OPTION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LEFT NEARLY UNCHANGED AND
REMAINS DEPENDENT ON FUTURE FATE OF FAY.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/cgi-bin/ ... n=0&max=11
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in NE GOM

#12865 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:17 pm

Agua wrote:Hmmm... new VDM: 29.41 N, 83.51 W


Which is about 29.7N, 83.85W...
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Re:

#12866 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:23 pm

Steve wrote:>>Hmmm... new VDM: 29.41 N, 83.51 W

About a half of a degree east and south of the previous reading. I'm next to positive that be they meso-vortexes or just embedded spins, Fay's center runs from offshore of the Big Bend into southern Georgia. You can see clouds moving north, south east and west around that general turning "center." So to me, and I don't care if this is in the middle or lower levels of the atmosphere, it's just a tropical low pressure bringnig a lot of rain to a lot of people from a different type of weather pattern. Rain starting to pile up throughout the central panhandle counties which should include a fairly decent swath of 10"+ before their threat is gone (more with inflow off the Gulf in the coming days) with maybe some 'event' totals in excess of 15" down that way.

Steve


Eh, more like .1S and .65W since 5:00
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#12867 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:26 pm

catastrophic, thanks for the excellent pictures but you may want to update the date in your camera!!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in NE GOM

#12868 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:27 pm

Agua wrote:Hmmm... new VDM: 29.41 N, 83.51 W


The VDM is at 29 deg 41' N, 83 deg 51' W, which is a big difference from what you said when its near land.
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#12869 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:27 pm

>>Eh, more like .1S and .65W since 5:00

Yeah, that's twice on me in two days. :oops: I know better (circles/minutes/etc.). /my bad
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in NE GOM

#12870 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:29 pm

a little convection firing off near the center... one can only image what this thing could have done had it exited the west coast of Fl by about 100 miles south..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
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Re:

#12871 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:30 pm

Steve wrote:>>Eh, more like .1S and .65W since 5:00

Yeah, that's twice on me in two days. :oops: I know better (circles/minutes/etc.). /my bad



I know you do, lol. It was easy to make that mistake after the post that you replied to had that "hmmm" language, lol.
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#12872 Postby NC George » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:36 pm

Slightly off topic, but please, no more 5MB pictures. Some of us are on dial-up, and I don't have an hour for the page to load. Shrink 'em down to something more reasonable (1024x768 perhaps, 600x400 even better!) You can post links to the full size version if people want to see it in full detail.
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#12873 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:38 pm

>>I know you do, lol. It was easy to make that mistake after the post that you replied to had that "hmmm" language, lol.

I had just finished looking at a bunch of doppler estimates out of Key West, Melbourne, Moody (see the hardcore training northeast of you guys (Valdosta/Lake Park/Waycross).

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Steve
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in NE GOM

#12874 Postby cag1953 » Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:13 pm

I was just checking NOAA for our forecast and noticed that they had upped our winds for tomorrow,as well as our percentage of rain. Not a whole lot,but higher than it was earlier today. Nothing that we can't handle though.
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#12875 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:16 pm

Recon finding 50kt winds.
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Re:

#12876 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:20 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Recon finding 50kt winds.


Sounds like the NHCs 40kt is spot on.
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Re:

#12877 Postby Sihara » Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:35 pm

artist wrote:we have dozens upon dozens of lizards on our back patio and there is not a one to be seen today- not one. I have even been bringing in my orchids and not one to be found.
Dogs seem nervous still, barking at things not to be seen! lol :cheesy:


What's interesting was, that was posted last weekend.

Anyway, I remember something similar back in '93, the afternoon before the big no-name. Went outside and it was weird not seeing any lizards or frogs, no sign of any birds where we'd normally see quite a few. They did a better job than our local mets at forecasting what was to come.

Perhaps they sense the pressure change? Perhaps we should use them in lieu of models? (J/K) But it does seem that animals can feel something Not Right.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in NE GOM

#12878 Postby cpdaman » Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:40 pm

looks like her main inflow (atlantic ocean) is being cut off as she slides west

and the main energy she is getting from gulf is traversing s. fl and working north into the same band that is not coming off/feeding off the atlantic G.S

she may weaken a notch further later based on this

let's see if she can develop any souther inflow into her S.E directly from gulf on saturday
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in NE GOM

#12879 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:43 pm

cpdaman wrote:looks like her main inflow (atlantic ocean) is being cut off as she slides west

and the main energy she is getting from gulf is traversing s. fl and working north into the same band that is not coming off/feeding off the atlantic G.S

she may weaken a notch further later based on this

let's see if she can develop any souther inflow into her S.E directly from gulf on saturday


Disagree, she doesn't look like she's strengthening but she really isn't getting any worse.
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#12880 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:44 pm

Could be speaking prematurely about just a dry slot but she looks like she's trying to reestablish her eye.
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