jlauderdal wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:AJC3 wrote:Keep in mind this system is still a SW-NE oriented wave with a low embedded along the wave axis. Hence, the low/vort center can very easily slide northward along the axis and tighten up into a primary center - in fact it appears that it may be doing just that. So even if you assume a motion more toward 280-285, the northward propagation can yield a motion closer to 295-300.
Yes but if that is the case, then the northward propogation would likely end when the center tightens up and the low becomes its own entity as a tropical cyclone, thus it would resume a 280-285motion. In this case, I still dont see a DR/Haiti threat. More likely a Jamaica or Cuba hit, eventually leading into the GOM. I just cannot see it going much further east than that. Correct me if Im wrong.
wait a second, you dont know when that low AJC3 talks about becomes a primary center and when and if it does the flow could be such that it goes 300 or 310, its all about timing, you cant assume that when and if it does get a primary center that it will go 280-285, if you can be sure and prove than NHC has a job for you...
Very true...and of course that is assuming steering currents dont change. But in the near future, theres nothing out there to suggest a significant change in steering, only a gradual bend to the north. That of course can change, as everything does in the weather, but I just dont see it now and would be happy if someone could point it out to me.