ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#861 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 24, 2008 3:59 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
AJC3 wrote:Keep in mind this system is still a SW-NE oriented wave with a low embedded along the wave axis. Hence, the low/vort center can very easily slide northward along the axis and tighten up into a primary center - in fact it appears that it may be doing just that. So even if you assume a motion more toward 280-285, the northward propagation can yield a motion closer to 295-300.

Yes but if that is the case, then the northward propogation would likely end when the center tightens up and the low becomes its own entity as a tropical cyclone, thus it would resume a 280-285motion. In this case, I still dont see a DR/Haiti threat. More likely a Jamaica or Cuba hit, eventually leading into the GOM. I just cannot see it going much further east than that. Correct me if Im wrong.


wait a second, you dont know when that low AJC3 talks about becomes a primary center and when and if it does the flow could be such that it goes 300 or 310, its all about timing, you cant assume that when and if it does get a primary center that it will go 280-285, if you can be sure and prove than NHC has a job for you... :D

Very true...and of course that is assuming steering currents dont change. But in the near future, theres nothing out there to suggest a significant change in steering, only a gradual bend to the north. That of course can change, as everything does in the weather, but I just dont see it now and would be happy if someone could point it out to me.
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#862 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:00 pm

I agree on the Wave axis thing for sure. I know we were talking about the shear zone being a factor just north of the islands. I Still think this is moving fast enough to out run most of that. Going to be an interesting thing to watch for sure.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#863 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:06 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote: What is creating the weakness that would take it to the DR in the first place? Is it the that trough up there? If it is, it seems like 94L is outrunning it, and the only weakness I see after that, that could pull it north is the weakness left behind by Fay in the northern gulf...which is not good if you dont want a northern gulf landfall. Nothing certain, but it must be taken into consideration.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000s.gif

Based upon the GFS init...the mid level ridge north and northwest of 94L has only a bit of a weakness in it at the present time, and obviously the mid level trough has put a pretty large breach in the ridge along 70-75W . The big question will be the evolution of that trough, and to what extent the ridge fills in behind it. Currently the GFS seems to assume that it will, though the model's ridge doesn't look terribly strong. The ECM suggests otherwise.
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Derek Ortt

#864 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:06 pm

this is not outrunning a weakness

the weakness is ahead of the system. Thus, the motion has turned from west to WNW
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#865 Postby Tropicswatcher » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:30 pm

Rain getting closer to us:
Image
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#866 Postby NOLA 30N90W » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:32 pm

As if, 94L is not already a tropical depression!

Recon will almost certainly find a tropical storm on their mission tomorrow. As things appear now, Hispaniola is the first likely target. After that, I don't think anyone would begin to guess. Sure, the models will give a good preliminary indication, but I don't consider any model outside of 72hrs.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#867 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:37 pm

Looks to be lurching more N-WNW. But I can't swear on the center. So we'll have to wait til it becomes more clear.

Of course you know where I'm worried this will bee-line towards...
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#868 Postby cpdaman » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:39 pm

seems like the amount of northward shift of the center along the wave axis will also determine how much this low feels the trough (at 70-75 west)

lets imagine the trough is accuretly forecast over the next couple days by models, a center that tightens further ne up the axis (by a degree or two) may have a better chance of a higher motion (295 or higher vs 280) once the center consolidates (stop's shifting north) since it would be at a latitude closer to the trough , no?

i could see this potentially getting sucked nw, consolidating taking a heading near 300 or so then bending back westerly past 75 or i.e getting plasterd thru hispanola , going a bit NE of cuba, then sucked westerly thru fla/ straights or keys then north central GOM with the big question of wether this turn west thru straights/keys
Last edited by cpdaman on Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#869 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:44 pm

now that I look at the maps, I definately see this going to hurricane status(eventually)...There are MANY other storms that have developed(even with shear).... I just have a bad feeling about this one...Sometimes storms have a mind of their own, and go against what everyone thinks they will do....This may be a scary storm down the road...
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#870 Postby Clipper96 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:45 pm

94 is now so huge that it doesn't even fit on the Navy's big 1km zooms; I had to back out to the ordinary 1kms to get a decent overall look: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... JavaScript

...Wow - look at those outflow channels over South America.

I think there's already an LLC under the southwest part of the arc; if you advance the loop slowly, the cirrus clears away for a few frames, and you can see some surface cu on the southwest side moving ENE. LLC appears to be at 13.5N/67.5W.

I've seen a couple other system in the past that looked like big white "beans" (arc-shapes with a hump up in the middle representing a strong southerly surge) in the Eastern Caribbean while Invest or TD, and they turned into really powerful storms (Gilbert comes to mind).
Last edited by Clipper96 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#871 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:48 pm

After midnight tonight we should see where this is aiming with this forward speed. I don't like this one because if it turns towards us it will be fast with less preparation time. I need an NHC cone to get a better idea.
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#872 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:50 pm

To me it looks like its already gaining appreciable lattitude and that turn to the NW-WNW may be commencing soon enough.
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Re:

#873 Postby tgenius » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:To me it looks like its already gaining appreciable lattitude and that turn to the WNW may be commencing soon enough.


Gatorcane you think this may be a threat to SE FL for Labor Day weekend? I saw in the model run thread Euro 12z takes it towards us.
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#874 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:59 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It's a possible threat given the steering synoptics but I am more inclined to say it will not develop into anything signficant due to shear and land interaction. I'm thinking sheared TS or depression. It definitely bears watching though.
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Re:

#875 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:05 pm

gatorcane wrote:To me it looks like its already gaining appreciable lattitude and that turn to the NW-WNW may be commencing soon enough.


what direction do you have it going now?
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#876 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:07 pm

It's a possible threat given the steering synoptics but I am more inclined to say it will not develop into anything signficant due to shear and land interaction. I'm thinking sheared TS or depression. It definitely bears watching though.


Doubt you'll get two in a row like that this time of year.
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Clipper96

#877 Postby Clipper96 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:07 pm

There is virtually no shear over 94 right now, particularly over the southwest end where the real action is going to be.
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Re: Re:

#878 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:08 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:To me it looks like its already gaining appreciable lattitude and that turn to the NW-WNW may be commencing soon enough.


what direction do you have it going now?


I see WNW right now. I'm using this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#879 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:10 pm

I'm measuring a motion from 1245Z to 2145Z of 280 deg at 16.6 kts (150nm).

6 hr motion toward 285 deg. at 18 kts (111nm). W-WNW today, with a trend to WNW
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#880 Postby Bailey1777 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:13 pm

Wxman57 in your opinion will this be a player in the GOM?
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