ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1361 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:39 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Don't know if it is just a wobble or not, but the clear area at the center of circulation does seem to have wobbled more North than West.


I think this could shoot the gap between Hispaniola and Cuba, and be a big deal in the Bahamas.


Not at all sure of that, and even less sure JB gets his Florida or SE US storm, but it seems very possible.

Since tropical depressions have eye features or eye like features, and not eyes, I will say, deeper convection is now wrapping around the Western side of the eye like feature.


members can see this NW wobble or more "poleward" pull here:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1362 Postby boca » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:40 am

Blown_away wrote:
boca wrote:So according to the models Depression 7 might miss S Florida to the SW and we might dodge a bullet.


With the persistent SW flow we have had this year in SFL, I'm thinking a Fay like track or just E of SFL.


I don't know it depends on the weakness caused by Fay annd how fast the trough lifts out and high pressure builds back in. Its all up in the air.I just don't think this will have the same track as Fay.I agree with the NHC so far on track.
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#1363 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:44 am

:uarrow: GFS is showing some major weakening of the ridge across Florida in 5 days as a strong trough sweeps through the Great Lakes.

I am not sold on WNW well south of Florida by any means.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1364 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:44 am

Probably just a wobble as someone else just mentioned the steering flow looks to be wnw'rly
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Re: Re:

#1365 Postby Stephanie » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:45 am

bob rulz wrote:
Brent wrote:
bob rulz wrote:What time is recon supposed to get there?


Around 2pm ET.


Even without recon this should be upgraded to a tropical storm at 2. It's hard to ignore what is seen.


I think that if they are going to send out recon, we may as well wait for their data before declaring it as such. That's more conservative and we don't need the NHC to "hype" any storms. They are at least being responsible because it is their job to do so.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1366 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:46 am

boca wrote:
Blown_away wrote:
boca wrote:So according to the models Depression 7 might miss S Florida to the SW and we might dodge a bullet.


With the persistent SW flow we have had this year in SFL, I'm thinking a Fay like track or just E of SFL.


I don't know it depends on the weakness caused by Fay annd how fast the trough lifts out and high pressure builds back in. Its all up in the air.I just don't think this will have the same track as Fay.I agree with the NHC so far on track.



I have a feeling that it could pull an andrew but father north?????
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Re:

#1367 Postby Stephanie » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:47 am

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: GFS is showing some major weakening of the ridge across Florida in 5 days as a strong trough sweeps through the Great Lakes.

I am not sold on WNW well south of Florida by any means.


I think that we've gotten that point by now, gator.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1369 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:48 am

members can see this NW wobble or more "poleward" pull here:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif


I agree a NNW wobble at the end. It sure is nice when TD's have an eye to follow? :D
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Re:

#1370 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:49 am

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: GFS is showing some major weakening of the ridge across Florida in 5 days as a strong trough sweeps through the Great Lakes.

I am not sold on WNW well south of Florida by any means.



But some of the forecast I have seen are already showing this trough not being nearly as strong as originally forecast. As example it was forecast to sweep through the gulf states, now from what I have read it might stall out around the ark la miss region and lift back out.
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Re: Re:

#1371 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:50 am

Chacor wrote:TD 7 forecasting contest: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102744


good idea, im looking forward to checking out how some of the contestants deal with the pressure vs. wind relationship
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Re: Re:

#1372 Postby perk » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:50 am

Stephanie wrote:
gatorcane wrote::uarrow: GFS is showing some major weakening of the ridge across Florida in 5 days as a strong trough sweeps through the Great Lakes.

I am not sold on WNW well south of Florida by any means.


I think that we've gotten that point by now, gator.

Gator point well taken. :D
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1373 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:51 am

Dare I say it? An area central on the convection appears to have cleared out - lets hope its dry air and not the E word already.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1374 Postby Noles2006 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:51 am

deja vu!

CYCLONE MIKE arguing for a westward track... gatorcane arguing for an eastward track...

gc won round 1...

who will win round 2???
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1375 Postby ColdFusion » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:52 am

dolebot_Broward_NW wrote:Dare I say it? An area central on the convection appears to have cleared out - lets hope its dry air and not the E word already.


Welcome to the discussion, lol.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1376 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:52 am

And right on cue... WSVN has Tracking TD7 on front and center of webpage... if it becomes TS by 5 or even hurricane.. watch out.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1377 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:54 am

I think with this nudge N of WNW it is moving towards the weakness and setting up under it.

That's why I said to watch for a continuation of rightward tendency and a possible miss of Florida to the east.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1378 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:55 am

Sanibel wrote:I think with this nudge N of WNW it is moving towards the weakness and setting up under it.

That's why I said to watch for a continuation of rightward tendency and a possible miss of Florida to the east.


I hope you're right and it becomes a fish.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1379 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:55 am

The NHC was clearly caught off-guard by the rapid development this morning. I don't buy that first track for a second. Moving at 2.5 kts at the end is a big hedge because they don't know where to put it. GFS still shows a strong ridge building to its north over the next few days. That argues for a track just north of Jamaica Wednesday morning and then west (or south of west) to the Yucatan. There are no indications of a trof in the eastern Gulf that would allow for a turn there on the 06Z GFS and so far not on the 12Z GFS. In fact, the 12Z GFS now sees the storm for the first time and indicates a west track from near Jamaica, probably toward the Yucatan but it's not all in yet.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Seven in Central Caribbean Sea

#1380 Postby Stephanie » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:57 am

Noles2006 wrote:deja vu!

CYCLONE MIKE arguing for a westward track... gatorcane arguing for an eastward track...

gc won round 1...

who will win round 2???


As long as it's a civil disagreement, then everything is cool...
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