ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep, just talked to my brother (pro met here in Bmt) if you agree with the GFS, this could be South Mexico's boy.

[Wx_Warrior]

Low and behold...GFS 114..Notice 500mb high over Tejas.

[deltadog03]

GFS is clueless right now!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well well well....Fay dumped 30 inches of rain on the east coast, but
here on the west coast got 1.50 inches...

How come the motion is very slow for the next 5 days???? The
loops over the past 24-48 hours show a rapid 20 mph forward motion?

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn't write off the GFS at all ....it did pretty darn well with Fay. It was one the first models to show her swinging back toward the GOM. It's obviously seeing something the others models are missing or who knows it could be vice versa.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If it does take the Southern route (I said "if"), steering would be kind of weak, but I could see either a Northern Gulf or Double Mexico Yucatan to Mainland scenario. Texas, however, looks protected.

Unofficially, of course.

[Stormcenter]

If it does take the Southern route (I said "if"), steering would be kind of weak, but I could see either a Northern Gulf or Double Mexico Yucatan to Mainland scenario. Texas, however, looks protected.

Unofficially, of course.

You covered almost every scenario.

[Bocadude85]

is the 12z gfdl out yet?

[cycloneye]

is the 12z gfdl out yet?

At 1:30 PM EDT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

UK Met says it heads NNW and commits seppaku on the 3 km peaks of Hispaniola.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN      ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N  69.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 25.08.2008  15.1N  69.5W     WEAK

 00UTC 26.08.2008  16.7N  71.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 26.08.2008  17.0N  72.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 27.08.2008  17.4N  73.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 27.08.2008  19.9N  70.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 28.08.2008        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



[chris_fit]

Whats the link to the GFDL? Does it come out in pieces like the GFS or the whole thing at once?

[Brent]

GFDL Gulf in 126 hours.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -69.88 LAT: 14.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.44
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -70.35 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.04
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.03 LAT: 16.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.25 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.35
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.12 LAT: 17.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.17
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -73.21 LAT: 18.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.76
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -73.77 LAT: 18.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.77
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -74.19 LAT: 19.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.76
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.70 LAT: 19.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.99
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.33 LAT: 19.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.58
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.24 LAT: 19.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.18
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.93 LAT: 19.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.97
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.17 LAT: 19.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.61
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.86 LAT: 19.45 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.61 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.92
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -78.37 LAT: 19.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.67
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.00 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.26
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.68 LAT: 20.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.61
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.45 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.62
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.40 LAT: 21.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.25
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -82.39 LAT: 22.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.15
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -83.41 LAT: 22.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.19
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -84.36 LAT: 23.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.01
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -85.35 LAT: 24.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.01

[Sanibel]

Until GFS recognizes Gus consider it in failure and unreliable.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL avoids all land and enters GOM in a scary fasion...

[Nimbus]

through the Yuc channel?

[Wx_Warrior]

Eastern GOM run for the GFDL (which is the model I'm never sold on).

EDIT: for Eastern

[DESTRUCTION5]

through the Yuc?

Over the western flat tip of cuba...Which won't put a knick in him..

[dwg71]

Central GOM run for the GFDL (which is the model I'm never sold on).

Central?????

Looks more like Eastern Gulf to me...

[93superstorm]

HWRF deveopes this into a big storm, 946mb:

[Bocadude85]

What happens to the models when TD7 soon to be Gustav is stronger then they are currently indicating?