ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#501 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:10 am

Yep, just talked to my brother (pro met here in Bmt) if you agree with the GFS, this could be South Mexico's boy.
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#502 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:17 am

Low and behold...GFS 114..Notice 500mb high over Tejas.

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#503 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:21 am

GFS is clueless right now!
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#504 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:22 am

Well well well....Fay dumped 30 inches of rain on the east coast, but
here on the west coast got 1.50 inches...

How come the motion is very slow for the next 5 days???? The
loops over the past 24-48 hours show a rapid 20 mph forward motion?
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#505 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:25 am

I wouldn't write off the GFS at all ....it did pretty darn well with Fay. It was one the first models to show her swinging back toward the GOM. It's obviously seeing something the others models are missing or who knows it could be vice versa. :)
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#506 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:33 am

If it does take the Southern route (I said "if"), steering would be kind of weak, but I could see either a Northern Gulf or Double Mexico Yucatan to Mainland scenario. Texas, however, looks protected.

Unofficially, of course.

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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#507 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:35 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:If it does take the Southern route (I said "if"), steering would be kind of weak, but I could see either a Northern Gulf or Double Mexico Yucatan to Mainland scenario. Texas, however, looks protected.

Unofficially, of course.

Image



You covered almost every scenario. :D
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#508 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:02 pm

is the 12z gfdl out yet?
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#509 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:04 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:is the 12z gfdl out yet?


At 1:30 PM EDT.
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#510 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:18 pm

UK Met says it heads NNW and commits seppaku on the 3 km peaks of Hispaniola.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN      ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N  69.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 25.08.2008  15.1N  69.5W     WEAK

 00UTC 26.08.2008  16.7N  71.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 26.08.2008  17.0N  72.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 27.08.2008  17.4N  73.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 27.08.2008  19.9N  70.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 28.08.2008        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#511 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:23 pm

Whats the link to the GFDL? Does it come out in pieces like the GFS or the whole thing at once?
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#512 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:31 pm

GFDL Gulf in 126 hours.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -69.88 LAT: 14.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.44
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -70.35 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.04
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.03 LAT: 16.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.25 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.35
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.12 LAT: 17.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.17
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -73.21 LAT: 18.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.76
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -73.77 LAT: 18.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.77
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -74.19 LAT: 19.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.76
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.70 LAT: 19.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.99
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.33 LAT: 19.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.58
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.24 LAT: 19.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.18
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.93 LAT: 19.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.97
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.17 LAT: 19.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.61
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.86 LAT: 19.45 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.61 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.92
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -78.37 LAT: 19.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.67
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.00 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.26
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.68 LAT: 20.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.61
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.45 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.62
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.40 LAT: 21.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.25
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -82.39 LAT: 22.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.15
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -83.41 LAT: 22.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.19
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -84.36 LAT: 23.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.01
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -85.35 LAT: 24.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.01
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#513 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:33 pm

Until GFS recognizes Gus consider it in failure and unreliable.
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#514 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:36 pm

GFDL avoids all land and enters GOM in a scary fasion...
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#515 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:42 pm

through the Yuc channel?
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#516 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:43 pm

Eastern GOM run for the GFDL (which is the model I'm never sold on).

EDIT: for Eastern
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#517 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:44 pm

Nimbus wrote:through the Yuc?


Over the western flat tip of cuba...Which won't put a knick in him..
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#518 Postby dwg71 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:45 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Central GOM run for the GFDL (which is the model I'm never sold on).


Central?????

Looks more like Eastern Gulf to me...
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#519 Postby 93superstorm » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:46 pm

HWRF deveopes this into a big storm, 946mb:

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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#520 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:47 pm

What happens to the models when TD7 soon to be Gustav is stronger then they are currently indicating?
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