ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF.

[x-y-no]

12z HWRF.

Kind of low 10m winds for 942mb ...

[KWT]

Yeah it tends to always have winds too low, however the key to watch is the pressure, very low indeed, also suggests that this hits Haiti around 990mbs.

[Wx_Warrior]

Outside of GFS/CMC, looks the trend is EGOM.

Edit: CMC

[Meso]

[canegrl04]

Saw the projected path on FNC They were talking about it with much concern.If Gustav heads for the EGOM as a cat 1,we're going to have a major hurricane to deal with

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 251835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080825 1800 080826 0600 080826 1800 080827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 70.5W 17.0N 72.4W 18.4N 73.8W 18.9N 75.0W
BAMD 15.8N 70.5W 16.8N 72.1W 17.4N 73.7W 17.7N 75.2W
BAMM 15.8N 70.5W 17.1N 72.3W 18.1N 73.8W 18.5N 75.0W
LBAR 15.8N 70.5W 17.2N 72.1W 18.4N 73.8W 19.2N 75.3W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 72KTS 77KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 72KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080827 1800 080828 1800 080829 1800 080830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 76.3W 19.2N 79.3W 19.8N 82.7W 21.0N 86.9W
BAMD 17.6N 76.7W 16.8N 79.8W 16.8N 82.9W 17.9N 86.8W
BAMM 18.7N 76.3W 18.2N 79.4W 18.5N 83.0W 19.7N 87.3W
LBAR 19.3N 76.8W 18.7N 79.9W 18.5N 83.8W 18.9N 88.1W
SHIP 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS 78KTS
DSHP 79KTS 60KTS 58KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 70.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 66.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

[KWT]

The thing to note there is that a deeper system given current conditions would actually stay further south, so this is a little different then the normal situation.

[x-y-no]

12Z ECMWF takes it to Haiti, then WSW to W across Jamaica, NW across the western tip of Cuba, then deepening rapidly as it heads for the Florida panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

12Z ECMWF takes it to Haiti, then WSW to W across Jamaica, NW across the western tip of Cuba, then deepening rapidly as it heads for the Florida panhandle.

[Brent]

12Z ECMWF takes it to Haiti, then WSW to W across Jamaica, NW across the western tip of Cuba, then deepening rapidly as it heads for the Florida panhandle.

Bad Euro!

We're still dealing with Fay here today.

[x-y-no]

12Z ECMWF

Day 6:




Day 7:

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z ECMWF

Day 6:




Day 7:

I can already see JB having a field day with this...He will say EURO sees 2 pieces of energy and he will split the difference...A good bet he still like FL landfall later...

[KWT]

The thing is the ECM really isn't so far away from what some of the higher resolution models are suggesting, still will be interesting to see how this verifies.

[gatorcane]

well considering the Euro has shifted left, only the NOGAPS is right and it has Gustav heading basically NNW or N from here on out which does not appear is likely. So I think NOGAPS can be thrown out.....

So there should be a decent shift left in the cone at 5pm EST based on model trends

[Weatherboy1]

In my opinion, after reviewing the latest modelling and reading some of the NWS discussions, South FL might catch a break here. Unfortunately, this looks to be a Gulf of Mexico storm at some point, and one that could be noticeably stronger than Fay. We'll see.

[capepoint]

Will be interesting to see what the next 2 or 3 runs do with this. It seems it always takes at least 2 or 3 runs before the mods settle down and start to make sense. However, I got a bad feeling about this one and you folks around the GOM need to watch this close.......

[IvanSurvivor]

Still new at this...not really sure what I am looking at? What is the approx. wind speed on the 12Z ECMWF coming into the Fl Panhandle?

[Sabanic]

The 12Z ECMWF looks to be the NGC somewhere from MS/AL to P'Cola

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion, after reviewing the latest modelling and reading some of the NWS discussions, South FL might catch a break here. Unfortunately, this looks to be a Gulf of Mexico storm at some point, and one that could be noticeably stronger than Fay. We'll see.

Yeah but what about the other parts of Florida?
I'm still not making a call.