
ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs
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- x-y-no
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Re: ATL: TD Seven in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
cycloneye wrote:12z HWRF.
Kind of low 10m winds for 942mb ...
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
Outside of GFS/CMC, looks the trend is EGOM.
Edit: CMC
Edit: CMC
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Mon Aug 25, 2008 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
Saw the projected path on FNC
They were talking about it with much concern.If Gustav heads for the EGOM as a cat 1,we're going to have a major hurricane to deal with

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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 251835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC MON AUG 25 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080825 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080825 1800 080826 0600 080826 1800 080827 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 70.5W 17.0N 72.4W 18.4N 73.8W 18.9N 75.0W
BAMD 15.8N 70.5W 16.8N 72.1W 17.4N 73.7W 17.7N 75.2W
BAMM 15.8N 70.5W 17.1N 72.3W 18.1N 73.8W 18.5N 75.0W
LBAR 15.8N 70.5W 17.2N 72.1W 18.4N 73.8W 19.2N 75.3W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 72KTS 77KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 72KTS 76KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080827 1800 080828 1800 080829 1800 080830 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 76.3W 19.2N 79.3W 19.8N 82.7W 21.0N 86.9W
BAMD 17.6N 76.7W 16.8N 79.8W 16.8N 82.9W 17.9N 86.8W
BAMM 18.7N 76.3W 18.2N 79.4W 18.5N 83.0W 19.7N 87.3W
LBAR 19.3N 76.8W 18.7N 79.9W 18.5N 83.8W 18.9N 88.1W
SHIP 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS 78KTS
DSHP 79KTS 60KTS 58KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 70.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 66.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC MON AUG 25 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080825 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080825 1800 080826 0600 080826 1800 080827 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 70.5W 17.0N 72.4W 18.4N 73.8W 18.9N 75.0W
BAMD 15.8N 70.5W 16.8N 72.1W 17.4N 73.7W 17.7N 75.2W
BAMM 15.8N 70.5W 17.1N 72.3W 18.1N 73.8W 18.5N 75.0W
LBAR 15.8N 70.5W 17.2N 72.1W 18.4N 73.8W 19.2N 75.3W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 72KTS 77KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 72KTS 76KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080827 1800 080828 1800 080829 1800 080830 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 76.3W 19.2N 79.3W 19.8N 82.7W 21.0N 86.9W
BAMD 17.6N 76.7W 16.8N 79.8W 16.8N 82.9W 17.9N 86.8W
BAMM 18.7N 76.3W 18.2N 79.4W 18.5N 83.0W 19.7N 87.3W
LBAR 19.3N 76.8W 18.7N 79.9W 18.5N 83.8W 18.9N 88.1W
SHIP 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS 78KTS
DSHP 79KTS 60KTS 58KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 70.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 66.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

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Re:
x-y-no wrote:12Z ECMWF takes it to Haiti, then WSW to W across Jamaica, NW across the western tip of Cuba, then deepening rapidly as it heads for the Florida panhandle.

Bad Euro!
We're still dealing with Fay here today.

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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
x-y-no wrote:12Z ECMWF
Day 6:
Day 7:
I can already see JB having a field day with this...He will say EURO sees 2 pieces of energy and he will split the difference...A good bet he still like FL landfall later...
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
The 12Z ECMWF looks to be the NGC somewhere from MS/AL to P'Cola
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Re:
Weatherboy1 wrote:In my opinion, after reviewing the latest modelling and reading some of the NWS discussions, South FL might catch a break here. Unfortunately, this looks to be a Gulf of Mexico storm at some point, and one that could be noticeably stronger than Fay. We'll see.
Yeah but what about the other parts of Florida?
I'm still not making a call.
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