ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- gatorcane
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Yeah seems to be heading WSW toward the Yucatan peninsula (but in the NW Caribbean)...but the ridge finally breaks down over the GOM it seems:

Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:almost to Belize....
well I'd say this is a big shift west for the GFS:
Not really. There have been a few previous runs where it sends a weak low towards Belize or the Yucatan.
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
Gatorcane look at the 850mb level vort seems to be heading nnw from 72 hrs - 108 hrs.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
That GFS 500 mb looks similar to previous runs, with an alley for Gustav to start to recurve to the Northern or Eastern Gulf, with a protective ridge over Texas.
There is always the possibility the trough in the Westerlies doesn't fully recurve Gustav, Gustav meanders while the ridge builds in, and resumes a Western motion at a latitude more threatening to Texas, but that is awfully remote. Not impossible, but extremely unlikely.
More possible, now looking ahead 6 hours, is the ridge rebuilds and Gustav never does start to recurve, and heads generally West for a possible double landfall in Mexico.
But my unofficial gut, it is stronger than GFS shows, and far enough North to start recurving. I'd guess MSY to TPA, probably closer to the Western side of that, MOB, but I wouldn't bet money on that.
But final landfall is still a mystery.
Speculations are unofficial, I'm an amateur, haven't stayed in any hotels lately.
There is always the possibility the trough in the Westerlies doesn't fully recurve Gustav, Gustav meanders while the ridge builds in, and resumes a Western motion at a latitude more threatening to Texas, but that is awfully remote. Not impossible, but extremely unlikely.
More possible, now looking ahead 6 hours, is the ridge rebuilds and Gustav never does start to recurve, and heads generally West for a possible double landfall in Mexico.
But my unofficial gut, it is stronger than GFS shows, and far enough North to start recurving. I'd guess MSY to TPA, probably closer to the Western side of that, MOB, but I wouldn't bet money on that.
But final landfall is still a mystery.
Speculations are unofficial, I'm an amateur, haven't stayed in any hotels lately.
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Actulaly I think the GFS loses this system around 84hrs, then reforms a new weak system further WSW whilst the other part of Gustav is over western Cuba around 120hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
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- DESTRUCTION5
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LOL there he is down in the corner looking for the pacific..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138l.gif
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
My unofficial and amateur advice, forget the GFS surface feature, even the 850 mb vort, and use the 500 mb heights/wind fields and guesstimate how it travels from that. At 50 knots, it is deep enough to roughly follow that. If you wanted to get creative, could adjust for a couple degrees of beta effect, but I don't know about y'all, I'm not that smart.
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Derek Ortt wrote:I was told that the full EURO is 13-14km resolution
Resolution ECMWF is 0.225° Lat/Lon at the moment. They are planning to increase the resolution to 0.141° Lat/Lon in 2009 (I've read somewhere that the GFS model will also go to that resolution next year or so).
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs


Totally unofficial amateur comment, not a forecast, based on the last 29 pages of models:
In this case, Clipper has a point. So do the Bams. Without having looked at all the steering, and not being very wise, i'm inclined to go with NHC's split-the-difference track. Still, my gut says Mexico or, if it even gets out of the Caribbean, Apalachicola west to Cameron, LA.
The models that make sense to me so far are the southern bunch.
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs
BTW, Anybody know what the TVCN track is on spaghetti plots? That model takes it to the Upper Keys and I don't buy it, and I don't think I've even heard of it.
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