ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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DESTRUCTION5
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#561 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:03 pm

78 hrs just lovin the Jamacian area...Weird
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#562 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:05 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:78 hrs just lovin the Jamacian area...Weird


looks like it stalls just WSW of Jamaica, you are right

but ridge holding in Central GOM.
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#563 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:07 pm

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#564 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:08 pm

:uarrow:

Yeah seems to be heading WSW toward the Yucatan peninsula (but in the NW Caribbean)...but the ridge finally breaks down over the GOM it seems:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#565 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:09 pm

Looks like it has eak steering currents in a region that has been known to support beasts...

GFS doesn't do much with it, but then again it did nothing with Bertha nor Felix either...
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#566 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:12 pm

almost to Belize....

Image

well I'd say this is a big shift west for the GFS:

Monster ridging magically fills the entire GOM:

Image
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#567 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:14 pm

GFS runs are useless when it has it that weak. It looks like an open wave there.
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#568 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:almost to Belize....

well I'd say this is a big shift west for the GFS:


Not really. There have been a few previous runs where it sends a weak low towards Belize or the Yucatan.
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#569 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:15 pm

Crazy run fronm the GFS, it really powers up the ridge in the gulf of Mexico, reminds me a little of the CMC track actually...

Got to admit though I think this is ust the pub run doing its own thing!
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#570 Postby tpr1967 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:17 pm

Gatorcane look at the 850mb level vort seems to be heading nnw from 72 hrs - 108 hrs.
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#571 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:18 pm

I think the word for the 18z GFS is "OTL!"
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#572 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:18 pm

That GFS 500 mb looks similar to previous runs, with an alley for Gustav to start to recurve to the Northern or Eastern Gulf, with a protective ridge over Texas.


There is always the possibility the trough in the Westerlies doesn't fully recurve Gustav, Gustav meanders while the ridge builds in, and resumes a Western motion at a latitude more threatening to Texas, but that is awfully remote. Not impossible, but extremely unlikely.

More possible, now looking ahead 6 hours, is the ridge rebuilds and Gustav never does start to recurve, and heads generally West for a possible double landfall in Mexico.


But my unofficial gut, it is stronger than GFS shows, and far enough North to start recurving. I'd guess MSY to TPA, probably closer to the Western side of that, MOB, but I wouldn't bet money on that.

But final landfall is still a mystery.

Speculations are unofficial, I'm an amateur, haven't stayed in any hotels lately.
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#573 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:20 pm

Actulaly I think the GFS loses this system around 84hrs, then reforms a new weak system further WSW whilst the other part of Gustav is over western Cuba around 120hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
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#574 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:24 pm

LOL there he is down in the corner looking for the pacific..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138l.gif
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#575 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:27 pm

Yeah the GFS loses it and just sort of develops weak lower pressure regions all over the western Caribbean. Whats left of Gustav according to the GFS is off the western end of Cuba by 132hrs...
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#576 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:28 pm

My unofficial and amateur advice, forget the GFS surface feature, even the 850 mb vort, and use the 500 mb heights/wind fields and guesstimate how it travels from that. At 50 knots, it is deep enough to roughly follow that. If you wanted to get creative, could adjust for a couple degrees of beta effect, but I don't know about y'all, I'm not that smart.
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#577 Postby HenkL » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:31 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I was told that the full EURO is 13-14km resolution

Resolution ECMWF is 0.225° Lat/Lon at the moment. They are planning to increase the resolution to 0.141° Lat/Lon in 2009 (I've read somewhere that the GFS model will also go to that resolution next year or so).
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#578 Postby Recurve » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:35 pm

:uarrow: Ed, sounds very wise :uarrow:

Totally unofficial amateur comment, not a forecast, based on the last 29 pages of models:

In this case, Clipper has a point. So do the Bams. Without having looked at all the steering, and not being very wise, i'm inclined to go with NHC's split-the-difference track. Still, my gut says Mexico or, if it even gets out of the Caribbean, Apalachicola west to Cameron, LA.

The models that make sense to me so far are the southern bunch.
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#579 Postby Recurve » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:46 pm

BTW, Anybody know what the TVCN track is on spaghetti plots? That model takes it to the Upper Keys and I don't buy it, and I don't think I've even heard of it.
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#580 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:50 pm

Big turns to the west.

Image
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