ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#641 Postby HardCard » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:34 pm

Living in Central Florida, I would say that resting easy is a bad idea.. I'll rest better once it enters the gulf and approaches a coastline...


Having said that, I have family in louisiana and tampa.. so my interests are.... wide spread.
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#642 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:35 pm

Well, I hope no one is -removed- for this one, cause they will be sorry afterwards
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#643 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:38 pm

00zGFS 12 hours

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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#644 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:43 pm

24 hours..in reality it is probably a Hurricane...GFS needs to wake up :x

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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#645 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:48 pm

dancing around Jamaica it seems......not really a good run IMO...
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#646 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:53 pm

Wow the GFS actually shows a low now.
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#647 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:58 pm

moving west now after zig zagging over Jam......Yucatan maybe??
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#648 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:00 pm

ROCK wrote:moving west now after zig zagging over Jam......Yucatan maybe??


Yeah, if it was a depression like the GFS is showing..the 500mb shows no ridge in the gulf at 72 hours..the GFS seriously needs to latch on..there is a near hurricane now!

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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#649 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:03 pm

Now Rock...You said the same thing about the 18z....Give the GFS a break! :D
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#650 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:04 pm

If I'm not mistaken, many have said not to worry about intensity for the GFS. Just pay attention to the track.
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Re:

#651 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:05 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:If I'm not mistaken, many have said not to worry about intensity for the GFS. Just pay attention to the track.


Once it gets out into the lower resolution range, but short range this is hardly picking up on Gustav
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#652 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:06 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Now Rock...You said the same thing about the 18z....Give the GFS a break! :D



Coop this run is wacko... you know that..... :lol: 4 days moving around the Ncarb....oh brother...
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#653 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:06 pm

Correct Metro Ag...I've been told the same thing and GFS has been pretty salty with ending track results.
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#654 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:16 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif


theres your ridge at 114 day 5........Yucatan hit......
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#655 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:21 pm

If GFS varifyies It's Yucatan then Mexico!
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Re: ATL: TS Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea Model Runs

#656 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:21 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:If GFS varifyies It's Yucatan then Mexico!



yep...WXMN57 suggested this very same thing earlier today....
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#657 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:22 pm

Everyone will be at the crow buffet if GFS, which is good as any, pans out.
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Re:

#658 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:24 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Everyone will be at the crow buffet if GFS, which is good as any, pans out.




I wont... :lol: ...but if it does pan out thank goodness for us and prayers for the people on MX....
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#659 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:27 pm

Can't discount the GFS, let's see how persistent it is with this scenario.
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Re:

#660 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:27 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Everyone will be at the crow buffet if GFS, which is good as any, pans out.


If this weakens to a weak storm or depression over the next few days and makes landfall in the Yucatan as a TD or tropical wave and doesn't strengthen despite being over the NW carribbean, then I will be first in line at the buffet.
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