ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Annie Oakley]

Probably because the East Coast boys no that it is not likely it will go there, but you never no. Everyone should be prepared on the Gulf Coast. Especially with the model runs.[/quote]
East Coast boys..haaa! Yes-I agree-levity aside-loving the model forum on S2k for the knowledge and wisdom-we are relying on you here in Texas-and of course the NHC. We particularly appreciate the links and sat pics etc....a sterling job from all of you at S2k. Hats off!

[ROCK]

Looks like the central and western Gulf coast will need to watch this one closely. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 5-7 days..

And you moved to Oklahoma? I thought you were in FL.....we miss you on the other board with your knowledge....


Paul

[Ed Mahmoud]

I didn't know the Cubans had their own local MM5

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=MODELOS&TB2=MAPAS&TB3=/mapas/viento/

[O Town]

I didn't know the Cubans had their own local MM5

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=MODELOS&TB2=MAPAS&TB3=/mapas/viento/

Seems to be right on with most of the other models too.
Interesting.

[yzerfan]

I think Jason Kelly sticks around PCB pretty much because of a chance to forecast tropical weather. There are stations here who seem to turn over their weather forecasters every year because we're a small market and the pay is better somewhere bigger. But Jason sticks around because there aren't many other tv stations out there in places that are as interesting to him, and channel 7 lets him run with it and do things like discuss his deep appreciation for Stacy Stewart's mad hurricane skilz on the air.

[Frank P]

I think Jason Kelly sticks around PCB pretty much because of a chance to forecast tropical weather. There are stations here who seem to turn over their weather forecasters every year because we're a small market and the pay is better somewhere bigger. But Jason sticks around because there aren't many other tv stations out there in places that are as interesting to him, and channel 7 lets him run with it and do things like discuss his deep appreciation for Stacy Stewart's mad hurricane skilz on the air.

Always like reading Jason's posts on CFHC... is he still thinking LA or has he shifted more to the west...

[Air Force Met]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Ships has a Cat 2 after 120 hours. Only GFDL shows a real major monster. Are we sure about the rapid development of this storm?

HWRF has it at 934 mb and falling...I wouldn't call that a sissy. Also...SHIPS doesn't do rapid intensification that much. Remember Dolly. Also remember small core systems can ramp up quickly.

So...short answer is: It is certainly possible.

[Wx_Warrior]

6 days out...here's betting that models continue westward ship and Corpus could be the final destination...If im in the cone now, id feel a little safer than being in the cone on saturday.

[srainhoutx]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Ships has a Cat 2 after 120 hours. Only GFDL shows a real major monster. Are we sure about the rapid development of this storm?

HWRF has it at 934 mb and falling...I wouldn't call that a sissy. Also...SHIPS doesn't do rapid intensification that much. Remember Dolly. Also remember small core systems can ramp up quickly.

So...short answer is: It is certainly possible.

Thanks AMF. Folks forget that with a well established inner core, these cyclone can spin up in a hurry.

[Emmett_Brown]

Storms sure do seem to like land this year... Hispaniola is like hurricane velcro.

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Ships has a Cat 2 after 120 hours. Only GFDL shows a real major monster. Are we sure about the rapid development of this storm?

HWRF has it at 934 mb and falling...I wouldn't call that a sissy. Also...SHIPS doesn't do rapid intensification that much. Remember Dolly. Also remember small core systems can ramp up quickly.

So...short answer is: It is certainly possible.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_126l.gif

That is pretty impressive development. Almost the exact GFDL track too through the gap and into the gulf.

[Shawee]

I think Jason Kelly sticks around PCB pretty much because of a chance to forecast tropical weather. There are stations here who seem to turn over their weather forecasters every year because we're a small market and the pay is better somewhere bigger. But Jason sticks around because there aren't many other tv stations out there in places that are as interesting to him, and channel 7 lets him run with it and do things like discuss his deep appreciation for Stacy Stewart's mad hurricane skilz on the air.

Always like reading Jason's posts on CFHC... is he still thinking LA or has he shifted more to the west...

Just watched his last show and he seems to be favoring central/west central La. as of now.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather

[Sabanic]

All we can be sure of at this time is that Gus will enter the GOM. For now though it is a bit too far out to be sure of anything past that.

Everyone along the Gulf Coast just needs to keep a very close eye on him through the weekend.

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

New 0Z 26 August NAM at 36hrs is almost on top of Jamaica.

[Innotech]

I think Jason Kelly sticks around PCB pretty much because of a chance to forecast tropical weather. There are stations here who seem to turn over their weather forecasters every year because we're a small market and the pay is better somewhere bigger. But Jason sticks around because there aren't many other tv stations out there in places that are as interesting to him, and channel 7 lets him run with it and do things like discuss his deep appreciation for Stacy Stewart's mad hurricane skilz on the air.

Always like reading Jason's posts on CFHC... is he still thinking LA or has he shifted more to the west...

Just watched his last show and he seems to be favoring central/west central La. as of now.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather

I got a couple cases of water and some batteries just in case.
Some of our gas station customers are panicking like you wouldnt believe. Its going to be a long week at work.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the central and western Gulf coast will need to watch this one closely. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 5-7 days..

And you moved to Oklahoma? I thought you were in FL.....we miss you on the other board with your knowledge....


Paul

Yeah, I know. I have been all over the place recently. Luckily though, my moving spree seems to finally be over with. lol.

As for the other board, I do still pop in from time to time, but it is true that I have not posted there recently. If Gustav becomes a Texas issue though, then there is a pretty good chance that I may make a visit, so be on the lookout for "EWG" in the days to come..

[gboudx]

Looks like the central and western Gulf coast will need to watch this one closely. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 5-7 days..

And you moved to Oklahoma? I thought you were in FL.....we miss you on the other board with your knowledge....


Paul

Yeah, I know. I have been all over the place recently. Luckily though, my moving spree seems to finally be over with. lol.

As for the other board, I do still pop in from time to time, but it is true that I have not posted there recently. If Gustav becomes a Texas issue though, then there is a pretty good chance that I may make a visit, so be on the lookout for "EWG" in the days to come..

OKC huh? I bet you can't wait for Winter.

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

nice ridge . . .

[BigB0882]

Someone else asked but I did not see a response. How often is this page updated?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif

On another note, all this talk and speculation is making my blood pressure go through the roof. I wish I had the will power to completely ignore this storm for 2 days! Then I could come back with a much better idea of what to expect and still enough time to prepare if need be. LOL!

[Javlin]

Someone else asked but I did not see a response. How often is this page updated?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif

On another note, all this talk and speculation is making my blood pressure go through the roof. I wish I had the will power to completely ignore this storm for 2 days! Then I could come back with a much better idea of what to expect and still enough time to prepare if need be. LOL!

I would suspect four times a day you have 00z,06z,12z and 18z runs.The 00z and 12z runs are the supposedly more reliable,better data inserted.