ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs
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- Annie Oakley
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Re: Re:
Probably because the East Coast boys no that it is not likely it will go there, but you never no. Everyone should be prepared on the Gulf Coast. Especially with the model runs.[/quote]
East Coast boys..haaa! Yes-I agree-levity aside-loving the model forum on S2k for the knowledge and wisdom-we are relying on you here in Texas-and of course the NHC. We particularly appreciate the links and sat pics etc....a sterling job from all of you at S2k. Hats off!
East Coast boys..haaa! Yes-I agree-levity aside-loving the model forum on S2k for the knowledge and wisdom-we are relying on you here in Texas-and of course the NHC. We particularly appreciate the links and sat pics etc....a sterling job from all of you at S2k. Hats off!
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like the central and western Gulf coast will need to watch this one closely. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 5-7 days..
And you moved to Oklahoma? I thought you were in FL.....we miss you on the other board with your knowledge....
Paul
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
I didn't know the Cubans had their own local MM5
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=MODELOS&TB2=MAPAS&TB3=/mapas/viento/
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=MODELOS&TB2=MAPAS&TB3=/mapas/viento/
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
Ed Mahmoud wrote:I didn't know the Cubans had their own local MM5
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=MODELOS&TB2=MAPAS&TB3=/mapas/viento/
Seems to be right on with most of the other models too.
Interesting.
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I think Jason Kelly sticks around PCB pretty much because of a chance to forecast tropical weather. There are stations here who seem to turn over their weather forecasters every year because we're a small market and the pay is better somewhere bigger. But Jason sticks around because there aren't many other tv stations out there in places that are as interesting to him, and channel 7 lets him run with it and do things like discuss his deep appreciation for Stacy Stewart's mad hurricane skilz on the air.
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Re:
yzerfan wrote:I think Jason Kelly sticks around PCB pretty much because of a chance to forecast tropical weather. There are stations here who seem to turn over their weather forecasters every year because we're a small market and the pay is better somewhere bigger. But Jason sticks around because there aren't many other tv stations out there in places that are as interesting to him, and channel 7 lets him run with it and do things like discuss his deep appreciation for Stacy Stewart's mad hurricane skilz on the air.
Always like reading Jason's posts on CFHC... is he still thinking LA or has he shifted more to the west...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
Sirius LeWindy wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png
Ships has a Cat 2 after 120 hours. Only GFDL shows a real major monster. Are we sure about the rapid development of this storm?
HWRF has it at 934 mb and falling...I wouldn't call that a sissy. Also...SHIPS doesn't do rapid intensification that much. Remember Dolly. Also remember small core systems can ramp up quickly.
So...short answer is: It is certainly possible.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
6 days out...here's betting that models continue westward ship and Corpus could be the final destination...If im in the cone now, id feel a little safer than being in the cone on saturday.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
Air Force Met wrote:Sirius LeWindy wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png
Ships has a Cat 2 after 120 hours. Only GFDL shows a real major monster. Are we sure about the rapid development of this storm?
HWRF has it at 934 mb and falling...I wouldn't call that a sissy. Also...SHIPS doesn't do rapid intensification that much. Remember Dolly. Also remember small core systems can ramp up quickly.
So...short answer is: It is certainly possible.
Thanks AMF. Folks forget that with a well established inner core, these cyclone can spin up in a hurry.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
Air Force Met wrote:Sirius LeWindy wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png
Ships has a Cat 2 after 120 hours. Only GFDL shows a real major monster. Are we sure about the rapid development of this storm?
HWRF has it at 934 mb and falling...I wouldn't call that a sissy. Also...SHIPS doesn't do rapid intensification that much. Remember Dolly. Also remember small core systems can ramp up quickly.
So...short answer is: It is certainly possible.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_126l.gif
That is pretty impressive development. Almost the exact GFDL track too through the gap and into the gulf.
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Re: Re:
Frank P wrote:yzerfan wrote:I think Jason Kelly sticks around PCB pretty much because of a chance to forecast tropical weather. There are stations here who seem to turn over their weather forecasters every year because we're a small market and the pay is better somewhere bigger. But Jason sticks around because there aren't many other tv stations out there in places that are as interesting to him, and channel 7 lets him run with it and do things like discuss his deep appreciation for Stacy Stewart's mad hurricane skilz on the air.
Always like reading Jason's posts on CFHC... is he still thinking LA or has he shifted more to the west...
Just watched his last show and he seems to be favoring central/west central La. as of now.
http://www.wjhg.com/weather
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- Sabanic
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
All we can be sure of at this time is that Gus will enter the GOM. For now though it is a bit too far out to be sure of anything past that.
Everyone along the Gulf Coast just needs to keep a very close eye on him through the weekend.
Everyone along the Gulf Coast just needs to keep a very close eye on him through the weekend.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif
New 0Z 26 August NAM at 36hrs is almost on top of Jamaica.
New 0Z 26 August NAM at 36hrs is almost on top of Jamaica.
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- Innotech
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Re: Re:
Shawee wrote:Frank P wrote:yzerfan wrote:I think Jason Kelly sticks around PCB pretty much because of a chance to forecast tropical weather. There are stations here who seem to turn over their weather forecasters every year because we're a small market and the pay is better somewhere bigger. But Jason sticks around because there aren't many other tv stations out there in places that are as interesting to him, and channel 7 lets him run with it and do things like discuss his deep appreciation for Stacy Stewart's mad hurricane skilz on the air.
Always like reading Jason's posts on CFHC... is he still thinking LA or has he shifted more to the west...
Just watched his last show and he seems to be favoring central/west central La. as of now.
http://www.wjhg.com/weather
I got a couple cases of water and some batteries just in case.
Some of our gas station customers are panicking like you wouldnt believe. Its going to be a long week at work.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
Yeah, I know. I have been all over the place recently. Luckily though, my moving spree seems to finally be over with. lol.ROCK wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like the central and western Gulf coast will need to watch this one closely. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 5-7 days..
And you moved to Oklahoma? I thought you were in FL.....we miss you on the other board with your knowledge....
Paul
As for the other board, I do still pop in from time to time, but it is true that I have not posted there recently. If Gustav becomes a Texas issue though, then there is a pretty good chance that I may make a visit, so be on the lookout for "EWG" in the days to come..

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- gboudx
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav over SW Haiti - Model Runs
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Yeah, I know. I have been all over the place recently. Luckily though, my moving spree seems to finally be over with. lol.ROCK wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like the central and western Gulf coast will need to watch this one closely. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 5-7 days..
And you moved to Oklahoma? I thought you were in FL.....we miss you on the other board with your knowledge....
Paul
As for the other board, I do still pop in from time to time, but it is true that I have not posted there recently. If Gustav becomes a Texas issue though, then there is a pretty good chance that I may make a visit, so be on the lookout for "EWG" in the days to come..
OKC huh? I bet you can't wait for Winter.

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Someone else asked but I did not see a response. How often is this page updated?
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif
On another note, all this talk and speculation is making my blood pressure go through the roof. I wish I had the will power to completely ignore this storm for 2 days! Then I could come back with a much better idea of what to expect and still enough time to prepare if need be. LOL!
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif
On another note, all this talk and speculation is making my blood pressure go through the roof. I wish I had the will power to completely ignore this storm for 2 days! Then I could come back with a much better idea of what to expect and still enough time to prepare if need be. LOL!
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Re:
BigB0882 wrote:Someone else asked but I did not see a response. How often is this page updated?
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif
On another note, all this talk and speculation is making my blood pressure go through the roof. I wish I had the will power to completely ignore this storm for 2 days! Then I could come back with a much better idea of what to expect and still enough time to prepare if need be. LOL!
I would suspect four times a day you have 00z,06z,12z and 18z runs.The 00z and 12z runs are the supposedly more reliable,better data inserted.
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