Wthrman13 wrote:Looking closely at visible and water vapor loops, it looks like some strong winds in the mid-levels are undercutting the outflow in the NW quadrant, and perhaps bringing some drier air into the circulation as well, but the area where this occurring is pretty narrow in longitude. I don't see any evidence of strong shear, mid-level or otherwise, over the center itself, but there is little convection in the north quadrant for which to look for mid-level cloud tags. At any rate, Gustav is moving into this area of shear and it could at least limit intensification in the short term.
Convection is redeveloping smack dab over the low-level circulation marked by recon. It's not dissipating folks! I expect gradual re-organization and re-intensification this evening and tonight. It may approach the south coast of Cuba, but I don't think it's likely it will make landfall there.
Yeah, there was dry air from 500mb to 300mb in today's 12z and 18z soundings in Kingston, too, so you may have something there.
Definitely took a battering, but this thing isn't going away, unfortunately. I don't think it gets very close to Cuba, unless it stays very weak. The ridge to the west has backed off a bit since last night, but not at all between 12z and 18z, so if Gustav intensifies tonight I think he might stray just a tad south of west actually, maybe even threatening Jamaica.
. It's "vortex", not "vortice". 
