wxman57 wrote:Gustav does look fairly bad tonight. The winds recon is finding aren't supportive of a TS. With any luck, Gustav might not survive the next 24 hours. We can only hope so.
New GFDL just in - mid MS coast.
I know pro-mets hate it when I mention JB, but he has said before, in his opinion, a near miss East of NOLA is worse than what most people assume is the worst case, a near miss West. The storm piles water into Ponchartain from the Gulf as it approaches with East winds, then North winds push an over-filled lake into the bowl that is NOLA.
JB's favorite worst case scenario this year, is a hurricane just West of Delaware, pushing the entire body of water into Philadelphia, like Narragansett Bay into Providence in 1938, except worse.
JB is 'Carla to Katrina', a wide enough cone that the Katrina part, as far as landfall, if not strength, seems possible. JB also predicts Gustav goes below 920 mb, and landfalls 920 to 940 mb. Within the cone, JB was hinting near the Sabine, but I suspect he will be off on that detail.
JB already getting excited (too excited?) over 95L/Hanna to be...