ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4041 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:Gustav does look fairly bad tonight. The winds recon is finding aren't supportive of a TS. With any luck, Gustav might not survive the next 24 hours. We can only hope so.

New GFDL just in - mid MS coast.



I know pro-mets hate it when I mention JB, but he has said before, in his opinion, a near miss East of NOLA is worse than what most people assume is the worst case, a near miss West. The storm piles water into Ponchartain from the Gulf as it approaches with East winds, then North winds push an over-filled lake into the bowl that is NOLA.

JB's favorite worst case scenario this year, is a hurricane just West of Delaware, pushing the entire body of water into Philadelphia, like Narragansett Bay into Providence in 1938, except worse.


JB is 'Carla to Katrina', a wide enough cone that the Katrina part, as far as landfall, if not strength, seems possible. JB also predicts Gustav goes below 920 mb, and landfalls 920 to 940 mb. Within the cone, JB was hinting near the Sabine, but I suspect he will be off on that detail.


JB already getting excited (too excited?) over 95L/Hanna to be...
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Derek Ortt

Re:

#4042 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:02 pm

Cape Verde wrote:I don't know where this 8000 foot legend of Haiti mountains comes from. Where the storm crossed the island, they're at like 2000 feet or less.


mountains are about 8,000 ft on the SW Peninsula
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#4043 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:03 pm

Not where Gustav tracked through though Derek, mind you with the inflow over those mountions its probably having a big effect.
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#4044 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:04 pm

Based on the new position, the center has cleared the Haiti mountains.
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Derek Ortt

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4045 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:04 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Gustav does look fairly bad tonight. The winds recon is finding aren't supportive of a TS. With any luck, Gustav might not survive the next 24 hours. We can only hope so.

New GFDL just in - mid MS coast.



I know pro-mets hate it when I mention JB, but he has said before, in his opinion, a near miss East of NOLA is worse than what most people assume is the worst case, a near miss West. The storm piles water into Ponchartain from the Gulf as it approaches with East winds, then North winds push an over-filled lake into the bowl that is NOLA.

JB's favorite worst case scenario this year, is a hurricane just West of Delaware, pushing the entire body of water into Philadelphia, like Narragansett Bay into Providence in 1938, except worse.


JB is 'Carla to Katrina', a wide enough cone that the Katrina part, as far as landfall, if not strength, seems possible. JB also predicts Gustav goes below 920 mb, and landfalls 920 to 940 mb. Within the cone, JB was hinting near the Sabine, but I suspect he will be off on that detail.


JB already getting excited (too excited?) over 95L/Hanna to be...



That shows he forgot about a little something called a surge up the Mississippi

The Katrina track makes the city prone to slow flooding. A track west can breach the MS River levee, making the entire city vulnerable to rapid flooding
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4046 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:04 pm

Derek,I havent found more information from Haiti apart from what you posted earlier today.Do you have new info?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4047 Postby sunny » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:06 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:
That shows he forgot about a little something called a surge up the Mississippi

The Katrina track makes the city prone to slow flooding. A track west can breach the MS River levee, making the entire city vulnerable to rapid flooding


ala Betsy
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4048 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:06 pm

who's JB?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4049 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:07 pm

Nederlander wrote:who's JB?


Joe Bastardi, heat met at AccuWeather.
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#4050 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:11 pm

nhc puts center at 19 & 75, that appears to be out in front of the convection, correct? I mean whatever limited convection there is. :D
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Re: Re:

#4051 Postby Sihara » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:11 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Derek Ortt is not pessimistic. He calls as he sees.


Yes, that "pessimism" has actually given me relief from unnecessary worrying over the years. I am very grateful for his posts here, and wxman57 and the other S2k mets.

wxman57 wrote:Gustav does look fairly bad tonight. The winds recon is finding aren't supportive of a TS. With any luck, Gustav might not survive the next 24 hours. We can only hope so.
It really does look bad - in one frame, it almost appeared to be falling apart. The pressure is up since I left for work this morning. The 8:00pm advisory has winds down to 45mph - it seems to be barely hanging on to tropical storm status.

That would be wonderful, except that there's always the possibility of re-intensifying, which we can only hope it won't do. No one needs a cat3, especially not NOLA.


...now I have to go check to see what 95L has in store, amazed it's still there.
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#4052 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:13 pm

dwg71, yep the LLC is pretty clearly exposed right now, convection is on the easatern side with the MLC seeminmgly only now exiting Haiti.
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#4053 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:16 pm

Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4054 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:21 pm

Our 6pm met showed steering maps for Gustav for the sun/mon timeframe. Says no front will be around to turn it northeast like so many other storms have done in the past. Showed a ridge centered over the mid atlantic coast and said that all depends on where gustav is and if the ridge strengthens more than forecast right now(which is a definite possibility in his opinion) that will determine where he ends up. He did not come right out and say it but hem hawed around the Galveston area or a little east towards LA/MS border most at risk. Also mentioned the increasing possibilty of a very modest slow down or even stall just before landfall if ridge builds and send it a little more northwest.
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#4055 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:22 pm

I agree Derek....I am also like wow, with the egg on the face look....This looks terrible and is in trouble....I see nearly no convection close to the LLC.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4056 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:22 pm

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Re:

#4057 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:23 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately


True enough.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4058 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:24 pm

i have been very bearish so far on gustav today

but one thing has me concerned (derek you can correct me)

this was thought to move wnw in the weaker low level flow should it be weak for a while (like it is weak) and that is why i thought it may dissapate (i.e go into cuba and die) but seems to be weak and moving west and FINALLY to escape the mountains, i wouldn't be the least bit suprised for this thing to spin up to a hurricane in 36 hours. it's tiny, it can re-generate very fast and should conditions be very favorable it would.

now derek is the low level flow still wnw and this thing is just a mess and hard to get a center fix and how is the shear in the near term ....Thank you alot
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4059 Postby sunnyday » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:26 pm

Is Gustav likely to dissipate since its wind speed is half of what it was last night?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4060 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:27 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Our 6pm met showed steering maps for Gustav for the sun/mon timeframe. Says no front will be around to turn it northeast like so many other storms have done in the past. Showed a ridge centered over the mid atlantic coast and said that all depends on where gustav is and if the ridge strengthens more than forecast right now(which is a definite possibility in his opinion) that will determine where he ends up. He did not come right out and say it but hem hawed around the Galveston area or a little east towards LA/MS border most at risk. Also mentioned the increasing possibilty of a very modest slow down or even stall just before landfall if ridge builds and send it a little more northwest.



Alot of "ifs" in there. He would be better off at this point just pointing out the NHC cone and telling everyone within it to stay up to date IMO.
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