ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[LowndesCoFire]

11pm

Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...

Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?

[MiamiensisWx]

There is VERY LITTLE difference between a Category 2 TC and Category 3 status...

If the wind radii is large, surge will be an issue, regardless of the intensity.

[mattpetre]

I'm willing to bet that the Texas season is not over... and by the way I too work in the Galleria area Ed and I love Pappa's Steakhouse or Burgers even

I think one thing people are missing is that the high that influences it now is just the first ridge that Gustav will encounter before a US landfall. I actually think that at this point our best hope for stopping this from becoming a monster storm is a Jamaican and a Yucatan hit. Would love to know what wxman57 thinks at this point.

[6SpeedTA95]

Discussion out:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

obviously this was written before they noticed the -80C tops on the convection. I now expect gradual restrengthening overnight and tomorrow, with a major back in the forecast. Since this is getting its act together again, I cant find anything that will keep it weaker.

Thats a bit premature don't you think? It's showed two or three hours of convection but overall is still looking quite disorganized.

[MiamiensisWx]

Shear in the GOM will hopefully keep him at a Cat.2 or less.

Category 2 TCs can be quite destructive. Additionally, if it slows around the time of landfall, that will exacerbate coastal flooding and wind damage...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Be interesting to see 0Z and 6Z models after 7 hours of hopefully restful sleep.

[Sean in New Orleans]

11pm

Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...

That's completely negligible from this far out as we all know how fast these things can ramp up. I also think it's pretty irresponsible of them to lower the intensity forecast this far out because people will start to become complacent.

Looks like they may be finally taking shear into consideration. I think it is VERY important to note that there is a BIG difference with evacuation plans for New Orleans between category 2 and category 3. Now, I'm not saying this forecast isn't anything but pure science, but, most will stay for a Cat. 2, but, will leave for a Cat. 3. Just thought I'd throw that out there....

[paintplaye]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.


Any takers?

I think I will. You weren't really around too much last night when GFDL had a cat 4 hitting Texas... Hmm I wonder why.


.....................................................................................

Since that 18Z near Cameron, every run since has been much closer to NOLA, with an eastward trend on each one. The trend is your friend.


Oh, and some of us have jobs we go to in the morning, and don't post much after 9 or 10 pm.[/quote]

its 10... haha

[canegrl04]

Theres no reason why this can't still become a cat 3.Remember its traversing very warm waters over the next few days

[Sabanic]

Shear in the GOM will hopefully keep him at a Cat.2 or less.

Category 2 TCs can be quite destructive. Additionally, if it slows around the time of landfall, that will exacerbate coastal flooding and wind damage...

Frederic was barely a Cat 3 (115 Sust) and destroyed Mobile

[Derek Ortt]

great radar view to the poster

"as of this minute" i see it strengthening and heading toward jamaica (land of mountains)

the radar does show pretty well how tiny and easy it is for this thing to wrap back up again

this is something i think people always underestimate with tiny storms


SEAN it is headed WSW toward jamaica

Now if it DID hit the mountains of Jamaica, that WOULD be the nail in the coffin...If what it just went through ripped it apart as much as it did, there's just no way it could survive the mountains of Jamaica, but again, we don't know if it will hit Jamaica or not, the radar can be tricky sometimes.

Jamaica very rarely, if ever, kills a TC like Hispaniola can. The highest mountain tops are around 2kft compared to the 6-10kft mountains on Hispaniola. Plus, Gustav is now beginning to move at a faster motion, so the island would have even less of an effect.

The highest mountains are about 7,400 feet for Jamaica http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountains_(Jamaica)

[6SpeedTA95]

Theres no reason why this can't still become a cat 3.Remember its traversing very warm waters over the next few days

SST's are quite high, TCHP however is moderate at best.

[JonathanBelles]

I may have missed it in this thread, but the news says LA is now under a State of Emergency.

[Weatherfreak000]

Only Category Two? After traveling the entire GOM?

Not buying it.

[mattpetre]

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.


Any takers?

I think I will. You weren't really around too much last night when GFDL had a cat 4 hitting Texas... Hmm I wonder why.


.....................................................................................

Since that 18Z near Cameron, every run since has been much closer to NOLA, with an eastward trend on each one. The trend is your friend.


Oh, and some of us have jobs we go to in the morning, and don't post much after 9 or 10 pm.

its 10... haha[/quote]

Some of us have jobs, but consider this almost as important and are willing to lose a little sleep. The trend may be your friend, but almost ALL (except UKMET) models are way off track with current position at this point. Are you really going to put much stock in that?

[mattpetre]

[quote="Derek Ortt
The highest mountains are about 7,400 feet for Jamaica http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountains_(Jamaica)[/quote]

Derek... what do you think about the new track? Seems that Gustav is really throwing us all a curveball at this point. Are you bullish on development now that Cuba doesn't look like a problem or do you think Jamaica could take it down?

[crazycajuncane]

I stopped to get powerball tickets at 8:30pm and the cashier was writing on a piece of paper... no regular gas. She said all they had left was the V-Power which is like 30 cents higher than the regular gas. I fueled up yesterday!

People are getting prepared. That is great!

[TideJoe]

Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?

That's my point..... your common citizen thinks a category 3 is way worse than a 2 so why not forecast a 3? We here on this forum understand that a weak 3 and a strong 2 are nearly the same, but your average citizen doesn't...... they just want to know what category the storm is.

[tolakram]

Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?

That's my point..... your common citizen thinks a category 3 is way worse than a 2 so why not forecast a 3? We here on this forum understand that a weak 3 and a strong 2 are nearly the same, but your average citizen doesn't...... they just want to know what category the storm is.

Because you forecast what your tools tell you and try to keep everything else out.

[MiamiensisWx]

Reliable global models and the consensus models have shifted WEST since 18Z...