TideJoe wrote:Toadstool wrote:AMeyerRN wrote:11pm
Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...
Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?

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TideJoe wrote:Toadstool wrote:AMeyerRN wrote:11pm
Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...
cheezyWXguy wrote:rockyman wrote:Discussion out:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad
obviously this was written before they noticed the -80C tops on the convection. I now expect gradual restrengthening overnight and tomorrow, with a major back in the forecast. Since this is getting its act together again, I cant find anything that will keep it weaker.
TideJoe wrote:Toadstool wrote:AMeyerRN wrote:11pm
Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...
That's completely negligible from this far out as we all know how fast these things can ramp up. I also think it's pretty irresponsible of them to lower the intensity forecast this far out because people will start to become complacent.
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Sean in New Orleans wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.
Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?
It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.
Any takers?
MiamiensisWx wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Shear in the GOM will hopefully keep him at a Cat.2 or less.
Category 2 TCs can be quite destructive. Additionally, if it slows around the time of landfall, that will exacerbate coastal flooding and wind damage...
ALhurricane wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:cpdaman wrote:great radar view to the poster
"as of this minute" i see it strengthening and heading toward jamaica (land of mountains)
the radar does show pretty well how tiny and easy it is for this thing to wrap back up again
this is something i think people always underestimate with tiny storms
SEAN it is headed WSW toward jamaica
Now if it DID hit the mountains of Jamaica, that WOULD be the nail in the coffin...If what it just went through ripped it apart as much as it did, there's just no way it could survive the mountains of Jamaica, but again, we don't know if it will hit Jamaica or not, the radar can be tricky sometimes.
Jamaica very rarely, if ever, kills a TC like Hispaniola can. The highest mountain tops are around 2kft compared to the 6-10kft mountains on Hispaniola. Plus, Gustav is now beginning to move at a faster motion, so the island would have even less of an effect.
canegrl04 wrote:Theres no reason why this can't still become a cat 3.Remember its traversing very warm waters over the next few days
paintplaye wrote:Ed Mahmoud wrote:Sean in New Orleans wrote:Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?
It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.
Any takers?
I think I will. You weren't really around too much last night when GFDL had a cat 4 hitting Texas... Hmm I wonder why.
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Since that 18Z near Cameron, every run since has been much closer to NOLA, with an eastward trend on each one. The trend is your friend.
Oh, and some of us have jobs we go to in the morning, and don't post much after 9 or 10 pm.
LowndesCoFire wrote:
Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?
TideJoe wrote:LowndesCoFire wrote:
Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?
That's my point..... your common citizen thinks a category 3 is way worse than a 2 so why not forecast a 3? We here on this forum understand that a weak 3 and a strong 2 are nearly the same, but your average citizen doesn't...... they just want to know what category the storm is.
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