ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

18z at this time


00z at same time...weaker ridge further east

[Nederlander]

day 3 and shooting the channel...hmmm....seems alittle slow.....


also note the trof sitting there red river area....not digging as much? got to wait for the update.....the suspense is killing me....

Anyone else needlessly losing sleep over this like me? lol. GFS still about the same from last run?

I'm losing sleep over the "local info" that Nederland and Wx_Warrior saw that they haven't shared with us yet.

Just kidding. But this "I know something you don't know" gets old.

ok well ill spill the beans... its nothing too major, but Greg showed that the high was extended a little farther south which was probably slowing Gustav and pushing it more WSW... farther out the high should be moving north allowing Gustav to enter the Gulf... at that point he basically talked about the models and suggested that if the High stays in place then a S.TX hit could be possible or it could move out of the way allowing a landfall from TX to NOLA.. etc.. so there it is... not to magically, but he's got some excellent explanations for things... lots of experience

[gboudx]

Thanks Nederland.

Is it me, or is the 0z GFS stalling it over New Orleans?

[Wx_Warrior]

central la

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...I wasn't referring to greg...He's the man!!!!

[ROCK]

its a staller....pushing ever so slightly west.....

[Ivanhater]

114 18z GFS



108 SAME time




more of a weakness on this run...

[Stormcenter]

All these scenarios are crazy. It's no wonder why the NHC hasn't adjusted their track that match. They want to cover all bases (left-upper texas and right-MS, AL,Fl panhandle) and I guess N.O. is the best spot to due that.

[ROCK]

114 18z GFS



108 SAME time




more of a weakness on this run...

not necessary weaker but the high is oriented different to its north....

[Air Force Met]

I dont know AFM...ridge seems weaker and further east on this run..vortmax now hitting Mobile instead of South Louisiana

By that time it is different. However...if you look at the 60-72 hr point...which is really where the end game is going to be made...it is stronger and further west.

As I have stated over and over: When I look at the globals...especially the GFS...and try to forecast a storm...I am not really looking at what it is doing with that vortex...especially since it doesn't have the resolution to find it or keep it at the intensity it should be. I am looking at steering flow. Since the key factor in the final landfall of Gustav will be determined over the course of the next 48-72...I want to know the strength of the ridging...not only off the SE US coast...but over the plains. If the plains high is stronger and further west during this period...it will impart a more westerly motion to Gustav during that period. So on Sat evening...instead of being at 22.5/84.5...its at 22/86...that makes a difference in the landfall.

Again...my area of concentration on this storm is not at 108 hrs. I think it is pretty much set in stone which direction it will be moving at that point...NNW. The question will be how far west did it get BEFORE it starts that movement...and that will be determined by that period b/w60-72 and even 90 hours from now.

[Praxus]

As I have stated over and over: When I look at the globals...especially the GFS...and try to forecast a storm...I am not really looking at what it is doing with that vortex...especially since it doesn't have the resolution to find it or keep it at the intensity it should be. I am looking at steering flow. Since the key factor in the final landfall of Gustav will be determined over the course of the next 48-72...I want to know the strength of the ridging...not only off the SE US coast...but over the plains. If the plains high is stronger and further west during this period...it will impart a more westerly motion to Gustav during that period.

Nice tip for beginners, thanks!

[cycloneye]

00z UKMET tracks to just SE of Galveston.



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.08.2008



TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 74.5W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.08.2008 19.3N 74.5W MODERATE

12UTC 28.08.2008 19.0N 76.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.08.2008 17.5N 78.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2008 18.0N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2008 18.8N 81.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 19.8N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2008 21.1N 84.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2008 22.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.1N 88.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 25.4N 90.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2008 26.8N 91.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2008 28.0N 92.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2008 28.3N 93.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[Wx_Warrior]

Model shows a west turn at the end. NHC 1 am update looks about the same (as expected).

[vaffie]

Canadian 0Z making a major westward shift this evening. Before, it stalled off the coast of New Orleans. Now it tracks northwestward towards SE Texas.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL landfall in GOM is near Mobile,Alabama

WHXX04 KWBC 280536
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.8 75.3 265./ 7.0
6 18.2 75.8 215./ 6.8
12 18.2 76.4 269./ 6.0
18 18.4 77.0 283./ 6.0
24 18.6 77.3 302./ 4.0
30 19.1 78.6 292./13.0
36 19.0 79.7 266./10.2
42 19.2 80.3 288./ 6.0
48 19.7 81.2 301./ 9.6
54 20.3 82.1 303./10.4
60 21.3 82.8 323./12.1
66 22.2 83.8 313./12.6
72 23.2 84.6 320./12.7
78 24.0 85.5 313./11.6
84 25.1 86.2 330./12.6
90 26.4 86.9 329./14.1
96 27.5 87.5 330./12.3
102 28.7 88.2 331./13.1
108 29.9 88.6 341./13.2
114 31.1 89.2 334./12.6
120 32.2 89.4 349./10.8
126 33.2 89.8 340./10.6

[Wx_Warrior]

More east on GFDL...next up the EURO @ 2pm central.

[Meso]

CMC , 240 hours

[vaffie]

CMC , 240 hours

Anyone know why this CMC model picture is so different from the one displayed on http://tc.met.psu.edu/
They're both the 0Z CMC model run, yet they have completely different outcomes. The one on the PSU Website has Gustav heading northwest towards Texas, while this one skims the west coast of Florida...then bounces southwestward towards the Central Gulf, then drifts northward to New Orleans...

[RL3AO]

CMC , 240 hours

Anyone know why this CMC model picture is so different from the one displayed on http://tc.met.psu.edu/
They're both the 0Z CMC model run, yet they have completely different outcomes. The one on the PSU Website has Gustav heading northwest towards Texas, while this one skims the west coast of Florida...then bounces southwestward towards the Central Gulf, then drifts northward to New Orleans...

The one posted above is at 240 hours and the PSU site doesn't got that far out.

[vaffie]

CMC , 240 hours

Anyone know why this CMC model picture is so different from the one displayed on http://tc.met.psu.edu/
They're both the 0Z CMC model run, yet they have completely different outcomes. The one on the PSU Website has Gustav heading northwest towards Texas, while this one skims the west coast of Florida...then bounces southwestward towards the Central Gulf, then drifts northward to New Orleans...

The one posted above is at 240 hours and the PSU site doesn't got that far out.

I know, but if you compare the same times with each other--which is what I did--they have completely different outputs. Compare the 120 hr--it's making landfall at Tampa-- http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.gif with the PSU site version--heading northwest towards Texas...