
00z at same time...weaker ridge further east

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gboudx wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:ROCK wrote:day 3 and shooting the channel...hmmm....seems alittle slow.....
also note the trof sitting there red river area....not digging as much? got to wait for the update.....the suspense is killing me....
Anyone else needlessly losing sleep over this like me? lol. GFS still about the same from last run?
I'm losing sleep over the "local info" that Nederland and Wx_Warrior saw that they haven't shared with us yet.
Just kidding. But this "I know something you don't know" gets old.
Ivanhater wrote:114 18z GFS
108 SAME time
more of a weakness on this run...
Ivanhater wrote:I dont know AFM...ridge seems weaker and further east on this run..vortmax now hitting Mobile instead of South Louisiana
Air Force Met wrote:Ivanhater wrote:As I have stated over and over: When I look at the globals...especially the GFS...and try to forecast a storm...I am not really looking at what it is doing with that vortex...especially since it doesn't have the resolution to find it or keep it at the intensity it should be. I am looking at steering flow. Since the key factor in the final landfall of Gustav will be determined over the course of the next 48-72...I want to know the strength of the ridging...not only off the SE US coast...but over the plains. If the plains high is stronger and further west during this period...it will impart a more westerly motion to Gustav during that period.
Meso wrote:
CMC , 240 hours
vaffie wrote:Meso wrote:
CMC , 240 hours
Anyone know why this CMC model picture is so different from the one displayed on http://tc.met.psu.edu/
They're both the 0Z CMC model run, yet they have completely different outcomes. The one on the PSU Website has Gustav heading northwest towards Texas, while this one skims the west coast of Florida...then bounces southwestward towards the Central Gulf, then drifts northward to New Orleans...
RL3AO wrote:vaffie wrote:Meso wrote:
CMC , 240 hours
Anyone know why this CMC model picture is so different from the one displayed on http://tc.met.psu.edu/
They're both the 0Z CMC model run, yet they have completely different outcomes. The one on the PSU Website has Gustav heading northwest towards Texas, while this one skims the west coast of Florida...then bounces southwestward towards the Central Gulf, then drifts northward to New Orleans...
The one posted above is at 240 hours and the PSU site doesn't got that far out.
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