ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Stormcenter]

Have any of the models forecasted Gustav track correctly since it formed?

No

I didn't think so.

[Stormcenter]

Have any of the models forecasted Gustav track correctly since it formed?

Stormcenter I had a site yesterday I linked to and save related to oil/gas production loss due to Gustav and they showed the NHC model of course and they showed another without naming they had been tracking as the most successful with Gustav to that point.The model appeared to be either the HWRF or the GFDL for the location they projected was the MGC about 50 miles E of the NHC.I have tried to hit the site today but it is tring to redirect me to nothing now except a new search engine.

That would have been the GFDL near MS.

You mean the GFDL predicted a MS landfall back on Monday?

[Wx_Warrior]

HWRF replacing GFDL next year right?

[HouTXmetro]

Not sure but I believe so, GFDL was near Galveston on Monday. I think i was speaking short term performance around Haiti.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Stormcenter"][quote="HouTXmetro"][quote="Javlin"][quote="Stormcenter"]Have any of the models forecasted Gustav track correctly since it formed?[/quote]


Stormcenter I had a site yesterday I linked to and save related to oil/gas production loss due to Gustav and they showed the NHC model of course and they showed another without naming they had been tracking as the most successful with Gustav to that point.The model appeared to be either the HWRF or the GFDL for the location they projected was the MGC about 50 miles E of the NHC.I have tried to hit the site today but it is tring to redirect me to nothing now except a new search engine.[/quote]

That would have been the GFDL near MS.[/quote]

You mean the GFDL predicted a MS landfall back on Monday?[/quote]


and it's still hanging on to the MS LF...if it's wrong at least it's being consistenly wrong

[Javlin]

Stormcenter had a Katrina like GFDL 06Z on 8/26 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

then the GFDL 12z 8/27 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

HWRF 06Z 8/26 middle of GOM http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

HWRF 12Z 8/27 TX/LA border http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

HWRF 06Z 8/27 only run into MS I think http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation


as I said it was up to that point on the morning of the 27th yesterday 12z had been run

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
18z about to roll..Not sure I like the initilization of gus below Jamica

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
18z about to roll..Not sure I like the initilization of gus below Jamica

not to far off I suppose to make much difference. We need to be looking at the 500mb heights for steering hints...

36 hrs weakness over NFL...

[weatherguru18]

NOGAPS...Not good for Houston...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

out 48 hrs...little further east over W cuba...

[weatherguru18]

UKMET...Not good for Houston!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[HouTXmetro]

UKMET...Not good for Houston!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Please tell me these are outdated runs?

[KWT]

That UKMO is the 0z run...its old and the new 12z shows a central LA hit.

[Brent]

UKMET...Not good for Houston!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

That is the 0z run last night...

The 12z run is here, moving WNW/NW into Central/SW LA.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS Out 84 Hrs loks like a LA bulls eye..

[srainhoutx]

Ridge looks fairly strong over the Great Lakes. The trough is staying out W as well. Keep an eye as these runs ingest NOAA flight data concerning tomorrow's runs.

[weatherguru18]

Oops. My apologies. Far too much going on.

[txag2005]

Ridge looks fairly strong over the Great Lakes. The trough is staying out W as well. Keep an eye as these runs ingest NOAA flight data concerning tomorrow's runs.

What effects do these elements have on the projected track?

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest GFS concurs with NHC track albeit slightly East...however it initialized the storm too weak as usual and too south...i'd assume a track like this but a tad east is possible if your following the GFS.

[KWT]

GFS heading right into N.O....