ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[boca]

I wonder if that SW motion takes shape will it move than S , SE than E or move more west after it went SW. Does that make sense.

[jinftl]

If a ridge pattern is forecast to remain in place, it would probably be some type of west or northwest motion, depending on the strength and orientation of the ridge.....if the ridge holds of course for that long of time.

One thing I know for sure...no one in florida likes to see a storm that is east of us by less than 600 miles begin a sw movement....which would be the case if the forecast holds

I wonder if that SW motion takes shape will it move than S , SE than E or move more west after it went SW. Does that make sense.

[Bocadude85]

I wonder if that SW motion takes shape will it move than S , SE than E or move more west after it went SW. Does that make sense.

I would tend to think she would have to move to the West with such a strong high in place

[O Town]

[cpdaman]

i'm a bit skeptical of a strong high being in place for the next week............3-4 days sure.....but this year.........now if we were talkling about last year i would be very scared...right now just concerned...crossing fingers she will turn north than out to sea at the end of her loop ( i mean one would think there would be a trough in the next 7-8 days) right?

very nice o town very nice

[boca]

The real question is how long the ridge is in place before the turn up the caost. Will it be at the Florida coastline, the western Bahamas , or NE of the Bahamas.

[Vortex]

00z will be out shortly. if the trends continue with the w/sw motion later in the period then I will begin to become rather concerned for central/south florida..

[meteorologyman]

She's still continuing to explode, that's not a good sign.
I'm afraid to see what I wake up to tomorrow.

[Bocadude85]

i'm a bit skeptical of a strong high being in place for the next week............3-4 days sure.....but this year.........now if we were talkling about last year i would be very scared...right now just concerned.

that strong high has not built in yet.. isnt forcast to build in until next week.. by that time Hanna should be NE of the Bahamas..

[LAwxrgal]

Is it my imagination, or is Hanna just plowing that ULL out of the way?

[lbvbl]

i'm a bit skeptical of a strong high being in place for the next week............3-4 days sure.....but this year.........now if we were talkling about last year i would be very scared...right now just concerned...crossing fingers she will turn north than out to sea at the end of her loop ( i mean one would think there would be a trough in the next 7-8 days) right?

very nice o town very nice

are there models that forecast this to go out to sea in the long term

[cpdaman]

Is it my imagination, or is Hanna just plowing that ULL out of the way?

almost looks like it

but remember ULL's are fickle , should this one stop moving again, while hanna keeps moving WNW then she will become more sheared again, i don't think hanna is out of the woods shear wise, but it appears she will at least survive (when that appeared more questionable earlier today)

[Stormcenter]

I don't care what the European model (What do they know about American weather?:) is saying I don't like Hannah's odds of making it into the GOM at all.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't care what the European model (What do they know about American weather?:) is saying I don't like Hannah's odds of making it into the GOM at all.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

As much as I support your worries at a gom threat, I dont think that was the best link to support your claim. There is only one hurricane that goes into the GOM from this point and its Andrew. Nonetheless its a scenario that must be considered, especially with a southward turn at the end of the forecast.

[Chigger_Lopez]

this is some of the most impressive DEEP convection I have seen in the Atlantic basin in quite sometime

The thought keeps crossing my mind that maybe Hanna will be the more powerful of the duo --- hmmm

Sorry, I am catching up on posts. Gator I think it will be much Larger than Gustav in total size and may just affect a much larger area. Just compare Hannah to FLorida and realize that if it develops into a strong hurricane it will most likely grow even larger in total size. Scary if it ends up being strong to boot.

[jinftl]

I would be interested to know what are other historical tracks for storms in a similar location for months other than august (which the wunderground link shows)....esp september tracks....may give us more data to look at, esp. tracks with a sw dip east of the bahamas

I don't care what the European model (What do they know about American weather?:) is saying I don't like Hannah's odds of making it into the GOM at all.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

As much as I support your worries at a gom threat, I dont think that was the best link to support your claim. There is only one hurricane that goes into the GOM from this point and its Andrew. Nonetheless its a scenario that must be considered, especially with a southward turn at the end of the forecast.

[AJC3]

I would be interested to know what are other historical tracks for storms in a similar location for months other than august (which the wunderground link shows)....esp september tracks....may give us more data to look at, esp. tracks with a sw dip east of the bahamas.

The analogy many folks have been using is Betsy (27 AUG - 13 SEP 1965)



Someone posted the H50 pattern for Betsy on another board, and there were some similarities.

[eastcoastFL]

i dont know why but Hanna gives me a bad feeling

[cpdaman]

deep black infared blob sustained to the SE of the LLC

wondering what is going on at 20/59 , this deep convection doesn't appear sheared yet is concentrated SE , as well as well south (near 17N/60W) llic is 21/60.5

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

guess it is due to the good divergence to the SE of the center

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[eastcoastFL]

i see what you are talking about convection is really picking up in that area