ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

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AJC3
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Re:

#1181 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:01 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.



Yeah, saw it before I left work. Landfall at JAX.
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Re: Re:

#1182 Postby jdjaguar » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:03 am

AJC3 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.



Yeah, saw it before I left work. Landfall at JAX.

well thats just peachy.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1183 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:12 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1184 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:13 am

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html interesting discussion from the hpc(hydrometeorologica prediction center)...circa days 4-7....suggesting a threat to peninsular fla and the keys..."northwest drift toward sfla after last tpc forecast point(day 5)"...assumes, of course, that she survives....rich
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1185 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:13 am

Yea GFS has a scary run.. just offshore S Fl and what looks like a stronger storm
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1186 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:18 am

weatherwindow wrote:http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html interesting discussion from the hpc(hydrometeorologica prediction center)...circa days 4-7....suggesting a threat to peninsular fla and the keys..."northwest drift toward sfla after last tpc forecast point(day 5)"...assumes, of course, that she survives....rich


thats a interesting discussion and also to note is the new GFS shifted west and now has Fl landfall as well.. but there might not be much left of her if the shear that is forcast hits her
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Re: Re:

#1187 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:18 am

AJC3 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.



Yeah, saw it before I left work. Landfall at JAX.


That's a few runs in a row of the GFS showing a W-WNW-NW bend towards Florida or close to hit (with the 00Z GFS towards the Carolinas)
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Re: Re:

#1188 Postby stayawaynow » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:22 am

gatorcane wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.



Yeah, saw it before I left work. Landfall at JAX.


That's a few runs in a row of the GFS showing a W-WNW-NW bend towards Florida.



Will you be placing shutters on your house soon?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1189 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:26 am

weatherwindow wrote:http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html interesting discussion from the hpc(hydrometeorologica prediction center)...circa days 4-7....suggesting a threat to peninsular fla and the keys..."northwest drift toward sfla after last tpc forecast point(day 5)"...assumes, of course, that she survives....rich


its a very complex situation and i believe this forecast and any other beyond 72 hours has unusually low confidence in terms of both track and intensity..nhc stated it rather well this morning
Last edited by jlauderdal on Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1190 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:26 am

Will you be placing shutters on your house soon?[/quote]

way to early for that just wait and see what happens
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Re:

#1191 Postby Trader Ron » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:27 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.



I just looked at the 06z GFS run and it's NOT a monster cyclone. I saw 979 mb which equals 90 MPH.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1192 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:31 am

For whatever it's worth, I just watched TWC 7 day forecast. They show the heaviest rain from Miami area N to Vero Beach on Wed/Thurs.
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Re: Re:

#1193 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:32 am

Trader Ron wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.



I just looked at the 06z GFS run and it's NOT a monster cyclone. I saw 979 mb which equals 90 MPH.


Well, 90 mph is enough to get me excited. If a model predicts 90 it could easily be alot stronger.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1194 Postby captain east » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:34 am

Image
Image
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#1195 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:35 am

Only one model to Cuba from the plot above, several more trending towards a WNW bend at the end...

The NHC line (white) is south of the consensus.

:uarrow:
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#1196 Postby Trader Ron » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:38 am

GFDL has it in the central bahamas in 120 hrs. 108 mph.. "mini-monster"

:wink:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1197 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:40 am

captain east wrote:Image
Image


I'm expecting that SW track to begin to flatten out and start showing a W or WNW bend at 5 days. If the track flattens out Hanna will be closer to SFL sooner.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1198 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:40 am

captain east wrote:Image
Image


what an absolute mind bender this is, could be the most entertaining one to track in a very long time, IF it survives
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1199 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:41 am

Blown_away wrote:
captain east wrote:Image
Image


I'm expecting that SW track to begin to flatten out and start showing a W or WNW bend at 5 days. If the track flattens out Hanna will be closer to SFL sooner.


keep us updated on the status of greg normans house in hobe sound, when his shutters go up let us know.. :roll:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1200 Postby cpdaman » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:44 am

jlauderdal on a side note how is your weather so far today

i remember noaa miami discussion mentioned possible tropical storm condtions in SE fl for sat nite- sun morn wonder if you got those gusty showers in the area yet?
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