ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.

Yeah, saw it before I left work. Landfall at JAX.

[jdjaguar]

FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.

Yeah, saw it before I left work. Landfall at JAX.

well thats just peachy.

[tolakram]

[weatherwindow]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html interesting discussion from the hpc(hydrometeorologica prediction center)...circa days 4-7....suggesting a threat to peninsular fla and the keys..."northwest drift toward sfla after last tpc forecast point(day 5)"...assumes, of course, that she survives....rich

[Bocadude85]

Yea GFS has a scary run.. just offshore S Fl and what looks like a stronger storm

[Bocadude85]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html interesting discussion from the hpc(hydrometeorologica prediction center)...circa days 4-7....suggesting a threat to peninsular fla and the keys..."northwest drift toward sfla after last tpc forecast point(day 5)"...assumes, of course, that she survives....rich

thats a interesting discussion and also to note is the new GFS shifted west and now has Fl landfall as well.. but there might not be much left of her if the shear that is forcast hits her

[gatorcane]

FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.

Yeah, saw it before I left work. Landfall at JAX.

That's a few runs in a row of the GFS showing a W-WNW-NW bend towards Florida or close to hit (with the 00Z GFS towards the Carolinas)

[stayawaynow]

FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.

Yeah, saw it before I left work. Landfall at JAX.

That's a few runs in a row of the GFS showing a W-WNW-NW bend towards Florida.

Will you be placing shutters on your house soon?

[jlauderdal]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html interesting discussion from the hpc(hydrometeorologica prediction center)...circa days 4-7....suggesting a threat to peninsular fla and the keys..."northwest drift toward sfla after last tpc forecast point(day 5)"...assumes, of course, that she survives....rich

its a very complex situation and i believe this forecast and any other beyond 72 hours has unusually low confidence in terms of both track and intensity..nhc stated it rather well this morning

[Bocadude85]

Will you be placing shutters on your house soon?[/quote]

way to early for that just wait and see what happens

[Trader Ron]

FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.

I just looked at the 06z GFS run and it's NOT a monster cyclone. I saw 979 mb which equals 90 MPH.

[Blown Away]

For whatever it's worth, I just watched TWC 7 day forecast. They show the heaviest rain from Miami area N to Vero Beach on Wed/Thurs.

[Blown Away]

FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.

I just looked at the 06z GFS run and it's NOT a monster cyclone. I saw 979 mb which equals 90 MPH.

Well, 90 mph is enough to get me excited. If a model predicts 90 it could easily be alot stronger.

[captain east]

[gatorcane]

Only one model to Cuba from the plot above, several more trending towards a WNW bend at the end...

The NHC line (white) is south of the consensus.

[Trader Ron]

GFDL has it in the central bahamas in 120 hrs. 108 mph.. "mini-monster"

[Blown Away]

I'm expecting that SW track to begin to flatten out and start showing a W or WNW bend at 5 days. If the track flattens out Hanna will be closer to SFL sooner.

[jlauderdal]

what an absolute mind bender this is, could be the most entertaining one to track in a very long time, IF it survives

[jlauderdal]

I'm expecting that SW track to begin to flatten out and start showing a W or WNW bend at 5 days. If the track flattens out Hanna will be closer to SFL sooner.

keep us updated on the status of greg normans house in hobe sound, when his shutters go up let us know..

[cpdaman]

jlauderdal on a side note how is your weather so far today

i remember noaa miami discussion mentioned possible tropical storm condtions in SE fl for sat nite- sun morn wonder if you got those gusty showers in the area yet?