ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[coriolis]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif
NOW THATS CONSENSUS...

I DONT THINK SAYING THIS COULD BE WORSE THAN KAT FOR NOLA IS "HYPING". THE CONSENSUS IS NOW WELL EAST OF VERMILLION BAY. IN FACT...NHC TRACK IS ABOUT THE ONLY ONE STILL HUGGING VERMILLION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR THE 11 TRACK TO CALL FOR LANDFALL IN PLAQUEMINES OR LAFOURCHE AND TRACK RIGHT OVER WEST BATON ROUGE TOWARD ALEXANDRIA.

First of all, stop shouting. Second, the plot you posted has some of the worst hurricane models, including the BAMs and NOGAPS. See my post in the model thread about the BAMs. They should never be used in a changing steering flow. Here's a better plot. All tracks between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. There's no shift to New Orleans, but that doesn't mean this won't potentially be worse than Katrina there. New Orleans missed out on Katrina's strong winds. A track just west of New Orleans or to Baton Rouge would put New Orleans in the right front quadrant of a Cat 3-4 hurricane.

The orange track near Baton Rouge is NOGAPS - not a very good model for hurricanes.

Looks like spaghetti right out of the box before you cook it.

[Ptarmigan]

I remembering Dr. Neil Frank saying that hurricanes have 1 in 3 chance of going outside the "Cone of Uncertainty".

[otowntiger]

He really took more of a hit crossing Cuber than I thought he would moving as fast as he is moving.

I agree, I was just going to say that. I surely didn't expect to see the eye totally filled in on satellite. It is still the NHC's achille's heal- intensity forecasts. I think that whatever they forecast intensity wise is at best a 50/50 chance.

[cpdaman]

i think the following may be key to her intensity in the central GOM

i would be watching the track like a hawk and hoping the co-ordinates of hanna do not match up well with the Loop Current for long over the next 24 hours, otherwise i think it is safe to say what will happen.

22.9 / 83.5 eyeball as of 845 a track just to the right of NW (320 degrees appears would have her miss a decent chunk of the loop current (especially should she maintain this heading past latitude 24N)

a track of 305-315 would have her over the loop current for a long time IMO based on the location of hanna now and the current.

pro mets can slap me or put me in line if this is not true

also she will be in very favorable water no matter her heading until 24 N

[gboudx]

Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans has been ordered.

The mayor says he expects the Harvey Canal to fail and the entire West Bank to be a bath tub. He also says this will be worse than Katrina with a possible 24 foot surge in New Orleans.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... dered.html

Clarification needed here. Not 24' in New Orleans on the eastbank. He's talking about the Orleans parish part on the Westbank.

[Just Joshing You]

What are the pro-mets thinking in regards to the 11 pm advisory? Will it be kept on track or shifted east/west?

[Dean4Storms]

i would be watching the track like a hawk and hoping the co-ordinates of hanna do not match up well with the Loop Current for long over the next 24 hours, otherwise i think it is safe to say what will happen.

22.9 / 83.5 eyeball as of 845 a track just to the right of NW (320 degrees appears would have her miss a decent chunk of the loop current (especially should she maintain this heading past latitude 24N)

a track of 305-315 would have her over the loop current for a long time IMO based on the location of hanna now and the current.

pro mets can slap me or put me in line if this is not true

You got Hannah on the brain!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

He really took more of a hit crossing Cuber than I thought he would moving as fast as he is moving.

I agree, I was just going to say that. I surely didn't expect to see the eye totally filled in on satellite. It is still the NHC's achille's heal- intensity forecasts. I think that whatever they forecast intensity wise is at best a 50/50 chance.

The inter core has actually held together VERY well. I've seen the land mass of Cuba tear the guts out of storms before. To the point where they have NEVER been able to fully recover before a second landfall in the GOM.

[soonertwister]

What are the pro-mets thinking in regards to the 11 pm advisory? Will it be kept on track or shifted east/west?

I predict it will move east 15-25 thousand feet.

(This post is a lighthearted, maybe weak attempt at humor, if anyone didn't notice.)

[wxman57]

well i will say this, when the hurricane center misses, they miss left.... meaning that the storms usually fade east or to the right of their forecast track... so, in my opinion, new orleans is in a bad way for now...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse, it's actually a fact. Lance Wood of the Houston-Galveston NWS has done a 10 year study of forecasts in the Gulf to help estimate forecast confidence. He found that in the Gulf, 74% of the time the hurricane tracks right of the forecast.

[wxman57]

What are the pro-mets thinking in regards to the 11 pm advisory? Will it be kept on track or shifted east/west?

20-30 mile east shift. Midway between LFT-BTR.

[njweather]

Gov of La should have urged an earlier move then.

Ordering a mandatory evacuation is a great deal more difficult than most imagine. You have to take the local economy, budget, logistics, and the ever-changing forecast into account, all on a massive scale.

With that said, I'm glad Mayor Nagan used sharp language - hopefully it'll get people to obey the evacuation order!

[Ptarmigan]

Jesse, it's actually a fact. Lance Wood of the Houston-Galveston NWS has done a 10 year study of forecasts in the Gulf to help estimate forecast confidence. He found that in the Gulf, 74% of the time the hurricane tracks right of the forecast.

I remember that with Katrina, Rita, and even Edouard. Even though 74% is substantial, there are the 26% that go left of the forecast and you never know.

[Just Joshing You]

Jesse, it's actually a fact. Lance Wood of the Houston-Galveston NWS has done a 10 year study of forecasts in the Gulf to help estimate forecast confidence. He found that in the Gulf, 74% of the time the hurricane tracks right of the forecast.

I remember that with Katrina, Rita, and even Edouard. Even though 74% is substantial, there are the 26% that go left of the forecast and you never know.

Actually, it's 26% that either make predicted landfall or slightly left lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears it has moved back over the gulf. We will see what happens now. Recon should check it out.

[CrazyC83]

My advice for anyone reading in the threatened areas:

YOU REALLY SHOULD EVACUATE IF:

1) You are south of I-10/I-12 from High Island to Pascagoula

2) You are at a base elevation under 25 feet in Louisiana and Mississippi, 15 feet in Texas, 10 feet in Alabama and 5 feet in the Florida Panhandle west of Fort Walton Beach

3) Your house cannot withstand 120-150 mph winds (150 at the coast, 120 inland)

4) You live in a river floodplain

5) You need electricity due to special needs

[mawolf3]

Please dont throw eggs at me but anyone know what JB is saying?? Just curious.

[soonertwister]

Jesse, it's actually a fact. Lance Wood of the Houston-Galveston NWS has done a 10 year study of forecasts in the Gulf to help estimate forecast confidence. He found that in the Gulf, 74% of the time the hurricane tracks right of the forecast.

I remember that with Katrina, Rita, and even Edouard. Even though 74% is substantial, there are the 26% that go left of the forecast and you never know.

I think that the NHC has gotten very much better on track forecasting in the last few years. They do struggle sometimes with intensity and timing, but most of their track forecasts are pretty reliable 48 hours out.

[Weather Watcher]

The orange track near Baton Rouge is NOGAPS - not a very good model for hurricanes.


Hi WXMAN57,

Why is there a NOGAPS model then?

Im just asking. Im learning new things every day about this stuff.

[Just Joshing You]

Please dont throw eggs at me but anyone know what JB is saying?? Just curious.

I'd trust J.B more than a lot of the pro-mets right now, as they were all forecasting against such a substantial increase, even NHC. He said it is likely for Gus to make a run at Cat. 5 and by golly it did.