wxman57 wrote:PTPatrick wrote:http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif
NOW THATS CONSENSUS...
I DONT THINK SAYING THIS COULD BE WORSE THAN KAT FOR NOLA IS "HYPING". THE CONSENSUS IS NOW WELL EAST OF VERMILLION BAY. IN FACT...NHC TRACK IS ABOUT THE ONLY ONE STILL HUGGING VERMILLION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR THE 11 TRACK TO CALL FOR LANDFALL IN PLAQUEMINES OR LAFOURCHE AND TRACK RIGHT OVER WEST BATON ROUGE TOWARD ALEXANDRIA.
First of all, stop shouting. Second, the plot you posted has some of the worst hurricane models, including the BAMs and NOGAPS. See my post in the model thread about the BAMs. They should never be used in a changing steering flow. Here's a better plot. All tracks between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. There's no shift to New Orleans, but that doesn't mean this won't potentially be worse than Katrina there. New Orleans missed out on Katrina's strong winds. A track just west of New Orleans or to Baton Rouge would put New Orleans in the right front quadrant of a Cat 3-4 hurricane.
The orange track near Baton Rouge is NOGAPS - not a very good model for hurricanes.
Looks like spaghetti right out of the box before you cook it.