ATL: IKE Discussion

[Air Force Met]

Storm is clearly moving way faster then the NHC forecasts....and the globals seem to be missing this...except perhaps the GFDL model.

GFDL seems to be showing the storm's current movement very well.

I don't think its moving that much faster. Go back to the advisory from yesterday and compare it to where it was supposed to be by 5pm today. Its roughly the same longitude (though they missed the latitude a little).

Look at the 09z forecast from this morning. Its actually 20 miles SLOWER. Its 20 miles ENE of where it was supposed to be.

So...its moving at about the forecasted speed.

[Weatherfreak000]

Storm is clearly moving way faster then the NHC forecasts....and the globals seem to be missing this...except perhaps the GFDL model.

GFDL seems to be showing the storm's current movement very well.

I don't think its moving that much faster. Go back to the advisory from yesterday and compare it to where it was supposed to be by 5pm today. Its roughly the same longitude (though they missed the latitude a little).

Look at the 09z forecast from this morning. Its actually 20 miles SLOWER. Its 20 miles ENE of where it was supposed to be.

So...its moving at about the forecasted speed.

Position from twelve hours ago...

20.6N, 49.6W
12 Hr Forecast: 21.3N, 52.2W


Now... 21.6N, 52.7W


So that's about .5W every 12 hours?


Extrapolate that for the next 4 days..... that's 4 degrees farther west right? Could definitely be very significant when we're talking about a system possibly missing a weakness and getting into the GOM.


This is of course, just my opinion.

[KWT]

Certainly is a small eye, not quite pinhole but still a small eye and a pretty compact little system, would expect it would increase in strength pretty rapidly, the IR imagery with the green is real impressive!

The only thing is the system is a touch flat on the northern side, maybe a sign of the shear the NHC were mentioning?

[HURAKAN]

A clear microwave image showing the a solid eyewall.

[KWT]

Very impressive presentation Hurakan, looks almost like a cat-2 and I suspect it will be sooner rather then later, the southern eyewall still looks a touch on the thin side but the gap is steadily being filled in now and the rest of the system looks intense.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 SEP 2008 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 21:36:24 N Lon : 52:52:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.3 5.8 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -40.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Numbers soaring in a hurry.

[cheezyWXguy]

Why is Ike's eye contracting so rapidly? Im a little confused...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

[Air Force Met]

Position from twelve hours ago...

20.6N, 49.6W
12 Hr Forecast: 21.3N, 52.2W


Now... 21.6N, 52.7W


So that's about .5W every 12 hours?


Extrapolate that for the next 4 days..... that's 4 degrees farther west right? Could definitely be very significant when we're talking about a system possibly missing a weakness and getting into the GOM.


This is of course, just my opinion.

The 12 hr positions aren't for 5PM. They are for the synoptic times: 06z/12z/18z/00z. You can't just compare those points. I am comparing the true points using hurrtrak. That 12hr forecast was for 18z...that's 2PM...not 5PM (which is the advisory time). That's 3 hrs of lost movement. Considering its moving at 16 kts...over 3 hours (21z-18z=3hrs)...that 48 NM. That's your error of .5 (actually more).

I am using hurrtrak to compare the extrapolated movement over each hour and I am telling you there is no error...and the 09z advisory is actually too fast.

[Just Joshing You]

The eye wall is like.. the entire storm LOL

[lonelymike]

Position from twelve hours ago...

20.6N, 49.6W
12 Hr Forecast: 21.3N, 52.2W


Now... 21.6N, 52.7W


So that's about .5W every 12 hours?


Extrapolate that for the next 4 days..... that's 4 degrees farther west right? Could definitely be very significant when we're talking about a system possibly missing a weakness and getting into the GOM.


This is of course, just my opinion.

The 12 hr positions aren't for 5PM. They are for the synoptic times: 06z/12z/18z/00z. You can't just compare those points. I am comparing the true points using hurrtrak. That 12hr forecast was for 18z...that's 2PM...not 5PM (which is the advisory time). That's 3 hrs of lost movement. Considering its moving at 16 kts...over 3 hours (21z-18z=3hrs)...that 48 NM. That's your error of .5 (actually more).

I am using hurrtrak to compare the extrapolated movement over each hour and I am telling you there is no error...and the 09z advisory is actually too fast.

Never argue with a professional sir.

[KWT]

Small system and those Dvorak numbers are going up very quickly indeed, nearly 4.5 which would justify 75kts and thats a big leap up from where it was even recently.

[Sanibel]

1) With Gus' track under Jamaica the NHC track originally went south of Jamaica, but then shifted north, but eventually actually verified south of Jamaica.

2) At this latitude recurve is very strong climatologically.

3) Watch GFDL.

[RL3AO]

9z advisory

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 52.2W

Actual location 03/1800z (from ATCF) 21.2N, 51.9W

Like AF Met said, just a tad slower of the 9z forecast.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Watch this loop! You can clearly see the eye contract and now I would say it has a pinhole eye now!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-jsl.html

[HURAKAN]

"What a beauty" RIP Steve Irwin.

[Air Force Met]

1) With Gus' track under Jamaica the NHC track originally went south of Jamaica, but then shifted north, but eventually actually verified south of Jamaica.

2) At this latitude recurve is very strong climatologically.

3) Watch GFDL.

NHC never went with a track south of Jamaica (edit: initially). The original track was north of Cuba. They didn't have it going south of Jamaica until adv 13.

[KWT]

Looking pretty impressive there Hurakan, we may well be seeing some very quick strengthening going on right now, quite possibly , eyewall totally closed with the eye a little covered but not by a big amount...cat-2 anyone?

[cycloneye]

We will know in about an hour from now if NHC increasees the winds at 11 PM Advisory,when Best Track updates.

[nolecaster]

This definitely looks like a cat-2 to me. Impressive stuff. Beautiful storm.