ATL: IKE Discussion
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- Hurricanewatcher2007
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion
This pinhole eye reminds me of Wilma!
(No this is not Wilma. No this is not going to bottom out in the low 880mbs like Wilma! No this is not going to become a Monster cat 5 like Wilma! By saying this reminds of Wilma I am not saying its going to be like Wilma so please have mercy on my poor soul and don't attack me!)
(No this is not Wilma. No this is not going to bottom out in the low 880mbs like Wilma! No this is not going to become a Monster cat 5 like Wilma! By saying this reminds of Wilma I am not saying its going to be like Wilma so please have mercy on my poor soul and don't attack me!)
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- MGC
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion
Ike looks to be intensifying at a good rate. If this trend continues Ike should be a solid Cat-2 by the next advisory. Should have at least another 24 hours before the upper level becomes a little less favorable. Ike could reach Cat-3 tomorrow IMO. Things should get interesting later in the week for the folks in the Bahama's.....MGC
Of course the above opinion is that of MGC's and not S2K......MGC
Of course the above opinion is that of MGC's and not S2K......MGC
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- Hurricanewatcher2007
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion
Well I guess I know what I am going to be doing tonight! Staying up all night watching Ike.
Last edited by Hurricanewatcher2007 on Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- DanKellFla
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion
MGC wrote:Ike looks to be intensifying at a good rate. If this trend continues Ike should be a solid Cat-2 by the next advisory. Should have at least another 24 hours before the upper level becomes a little less favorable. Ike could reach Cat-3 tomorrow IMO. Things should get interesting later in the week for the folks in the Bahama's.....MGC
Of course the above opinion is that of MGC's and not S2K......MGC
And I pretty much agree with you.
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- Hurricanewatcher2007
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Re:
DanKellFla wrote:How long until the Hurricane Hunters can fly in?
They should be flying in Friday:
4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY START 12-HRLY FIXES ON
TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 05/1800Z NEAR 21.5N 69.0W.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion
Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:Watch this loop! You can clearly see the eye contract and now I would say it has a pinhole eye now!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-jsl.html
Awesome... also looks like Ike might need to get just a little more northerly component in his track if he is going to hit that next forecast point... my untrained unprofessional opinion fwiw
I have a business trip next Tuesday at West Palm Beach.. now that could get interesting...
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I think RL3AO thats reflected in such high raw T numbers, clearly this system is really ramping upnow with a real solid eyewall nearly the whole way round the eye, its got a really great presentation, I strongly suspect this is probably around 80-85kts right now, I'd go higher but it obviously takes times for the winds to ramp up to match the presentation.
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- Military Met
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion
El Nino wrote:Impressive but not cat2 so fast I think. Maybe tonight.
Looks like a Cat 3 to me...or at least a high 2 (edit to add last)
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- Hurricanewatcher2007
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion
NHC never went with a track south of Jamaica (edit: initially). The original track was north of Cuba. They didn't have it going south of Jamaica until adv 13.
Never the less what is important is the tendency for NHC track to originate north and end up more south with a dip estimated into the equation. In this case it has to be adjusted for the northern recurvature climatology in this area further NE of Gus's dip southwest.
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- Professional-Met
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Looking at the structure, I'd say it has jumped to at least 90 kt now.
If the T-numbers rise a lot, could we see a special advisory at 8 pm?
If the T-numbers rise a lot, could we see a special advisory at 8 pm?
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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