ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS takes to Central Bahamas now before recurve...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Bocadude85]

GFS takes to Central Bahamas now before recurve...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

wow GFS has shifted to the south west now... not sure what that means though

[KWT]

Well the GFS is indeed shifting back to the SW despite losing the system for a little while. Recurves up through the Bahamas and may well bend out NE...but its a lot closer to the US on this run and that seems to be a trend...

[Weatherboy1]

This GFS run is BAD news for FL. THis is a big shift to the west for the GFS which only yesterday had shown the recurve something like 500 miles farther east (and in the 06 run was about 100 miles farther east). Still appears to be stalling/starting to recurve off-shore. But it's not the exact point that matters in global models 5-6 days out. It's the trend. And this is concerning. Have to see if it persists overnight as well, and/or is backed by shifts in other models like the UKMET (another eastern-outlier)

[KWT]

The GFS path would totally rake the islands out there including the Bahamas as well, they are probably well prepared for a hurricane but a major is still going to cause a lot of damage no matter how prepared.

[Trader Ron]

You will go crazy looking at models, five day's out.

I'll wait until late Friday/Saturday.

[dwg71]

GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.

[KWT]

True but its the fact its shifting SW again, as did the GFDL on its 06z run. Still lets see if the other 12z models do a similar thing, it is indeed too early to knows just yet...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.

Unless South Florida suceeded from the U.S. I would call about 150 miles offshoe close.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

[jlauderdal]

GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.

Unless South Florida suceeded from the U.S. I would call about 100 miles offshoe close.

[Brent]

GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.

Unless South Florida suceeded from the U.S. I would call about 100 miles offshoe close.

[jlauderdal]

GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.

Unless South Florida suceeded from the U.S. I would call about 100 miles offshoe close.

actually we are now part of the conch republic, anyone south of palm beach to naples is a conch, keeping with the traditions of the conch republic we refuse to evacuate for any hurricane, we kick the tourists out and we stay

[HURRICANELONNY]

When Ike gets closer we need to start a new topic called "WOBBLE".

[Bocadude85]

kind of a cool site it shows you the distance between the NHC 5 day track point and Miami.. according to this map Ike will be 188 miles from Miami at the 5 day point.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[artist]

HPC map for Ike at this point in time -

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav.html

[Bocadude85]

HPC map for Ike at this point in time -

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav.html

hmm shows Ike inland over Fl

[dwg71]

Just got back from lunch and 150 miles is close, but the emphasis of my statement was on the "TOO". At 150 miles away, Florida may or may not get TS force winds.

the gist was in response to "this GFS run is bad news for Fl", if this were to happen actually how this run predicts (which it wont), this would in fact be GOOD news for Florida.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFDL Even Further West and South...makes Ike take a beating on Cuba or Vise Versa and aims at SFL...

[gatorcane]

Indeed it does show it inland over Florida near Lake O

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Just got back from lunch and 150 miles is close, but the emphasis of my statement was on the "TOO". At 150 miles away, Florida may or may not get TS force winds.

the gist was in response to "this GFS run is bad news for Fl", if this were to happen actually how this run predicts (which it wont), this would in fact be GOOD news for Florida.

Any way you slice it 150 miles for a major hurricane at 6 days is close.