ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- Bocadude85
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Re:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:GFS takes to Central Bahamas now before recurve...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
wow GFS has shifted to the south west now... not sure what that means though
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- Weatherboy1
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This GFS run is BAD news for FL. THis is a big shift to the west for the GFS which only yesterday had shown the recurve something like 500 miles farther east (and in the 06 run was about 100 miles farther east). Still appears to be stalling/starting to recurve off-shore. But it's not the exact point that matters in global models 5-6 days out. It's the trend. And this is concerning. Have to see if it persists overnight as well, and/or is backed by shifts in other models like the UKMET (another eastern-outlier)
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- Trader Ron
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- CalmBeforeStorm
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Re:
dwg71 wrote:GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.
Unless South Florida suceeded from the U.S. I would call about 150 miles offshoe close.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
Last edited by CalmBeforeStorm on Thu Sep 04, 2008 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:dwg71 wrote:GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.
Unless South Florida suceeded from the U.S. I would call about 100 miles offshoe close.

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Re: Re:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:dwg71 wrote:GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.
Unless South Florida suceeded from the U.S. I would call about 100 miles offshoe close.

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Re: Re:
Brent wrote:CalmBeforeStorm wrote:dwg71 wrote:GFS does go through Bahamas but it definately goes back out to sea with out getting too close to the US.
Unless South Florida suceeded from the U.S. I would call about 100 miles offshoe close.
actually we are now part of the conch republic, anyone south of palm beach to naples is a conch, keeping with the traditions of the conch republic we refuse to evacuate for any hurricane, we kick the tourists out and we stay

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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
When Ike gets closer we need to start a new topic called "WOBBLE". 

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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
kind of a cool site it shows you the distance between the NHC 5 day track point and Miami.. according to this map Ike will be 188 miles from Miami at the 5 day point.
http://www.stormpulse.com/
http://www.stormpulse.com/
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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- Bocadude85
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Just got back from lunch and 150 miles is close, but the emphasis of my statement was on the "TOO". At 150 miles away, Florida may or may not get TS force winds.
the gist was in response to "this GFS run is bad news for Fl", if this were to happen actually how this run predicts (which it wont), this would in fact be GOOD news for Florida.
the gist was in response to "this GFS run is bad news for Fl", if this were to happen actually how this run predicts (which it wont), this would in fact be GOOD news for Florida.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- CalmBeforeStorm
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Re:
dwg71 wrote:Just got back from lunch and 150 miles is close, but the emphasis of my statement was on the "TOO". At 150 miles away, Florida may or may not get TS force winds.
the gist was in response to "this GFS run is bad news for Fl", if this were to happen actually how this run predicts (which it wont), this would in fact be GOOD news for Florida.
Any way you slice it 150 miles for a major hurricane at 6 days is close.
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