ATL: IKE Discussion

[ROCK]

Just an observation.....Ike looks to be missing his next forecast point to the south a tad....not a big deal...just thought I would mention it...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html

[Blown Away]

IMO, just S of due W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

[ROCK]

IMO, just S of due W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

I would agree with that statement.....

[ROCK]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

havent see you talk about the EURO today....I thought that was interesting.....you do like the EURO if a recall.....

[Evil Jeremy]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

How do you have access to the models before they are released, or are those the models from the previous run?

[jinftl]

Hurricane watches and warnings would be issued long before Monday night....we may have to go through the steps for preparation if it comes down to the wire that close...even with the GFDL's latest run.

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

[MusicCityMan]

Models will be shifting lots next few days. not yet sold at all on those turns..esp if it turns up this way

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Ouch. Not giving any time for evacuations and preparations if it will be here on Tuesday night.

~Beth~

[Tertius]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

But those are the old models are they not? The ones run last night? It is the runs 12 hours later that showed a westward trend and sent everyone into a minor tizzy. Unless I am mistaken, someone correct me if so.

[jinftl]

With tropical storm force winds possibly commencing 12 to 18 hours sooner even....a late Tuesday landfalls means preps need to be done on Monday. If the Keys need to be evacuated, that will start even earlier.

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Ouch. Not giving any time for evacuations and preparations if it will be here on Tuesday night.

~Beth~

[Scorpion]

Wow big shift east. I knew going through the Straits or Cuba was unreasonable.

[wxman57]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep5a.gif

havent see you talk about the EURO today....I thought that was interesting.....you do like the EURO if a recall.....

A model that shifts 1000 miles east or west from run to run doesn't give me confidence. The EC had Hanna going into SE LA for quite a few runs late last week. It was wrong then. For some reason, the Euro is the only model that doesn't see the ridge in the NW-north-central Gulf next week.

[Emmett_Brown]

If I had to put money on it, I would predict a recurve just E of FL. That's just me though. Latest models seem to draw this pattern. Still a long way off, and it could recurve W, over or E of FL. Also, this reminds me of Floyd (except smaller), so maybe that is why I am feeling recurve just east.

This is going to be a close one, and going to get a lot of people worked up. Already here in FL everyone is talking about this storm, wondering what next week will bring.

[wxman57]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep5a.gif

But those are the old models are they not? The ones run last night? It is the runs 12 hours later that showed a westward trend and sent everyone into a minor tizzy. Unless I am mistaken, someone correct me if so.

Old? 2 hours old.

[jhpigott]

i'm confused

the 18Z GDFL and HWRF just came out a couple hours ago and are actually much further south . . .

18Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18Z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Bocadude85]

i'm confused

the 18Z GDFL and HWRF just came out a couple hours ago and are actually much further south . . .

18Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18Z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

the models he posted are the same ones you just posted

[Sihara]

Pine and pecan.

Very true. And laurel oak, ficus benjamina, and casuarina - if they fall on your house, can do awful damage. Also, I think it goes without saying that a sturdy house means one that is adequately tied into foundations. Some of the older ones aren't - they're not too much better than mobiles I'd guess.

This looks very threatening, we can only hope that the trough speeds up and carries Ike away from the coast. The cone, though, seems to look more ominous than it did this morning.

[wxman57]

i'm confused

the 18Z GDFL and HWRF just came out a couple hours ago and are actually much further south . . .

18Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18Z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL dips Ike way down near Haiti (like every other storm this year) then turns it to 320 deg near Cuba, heading for south FL. End point is more of a NW movement vs. last run.

[lonelymike]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

How do you have access to the models before they are released, or are those the models from the previous run?

Gotta know whose palms to grease