ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Well, if I am counting on models now, then I better leave. 7+ days out. Most of you guys should know this by now.

[Sanibel]

Clearly GOM.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Clearly GOM.

Clearly slowing in the 72-84 timeframe..

[gatorcane]

Clearly GOM.

Clearly slowing in the 72-84 timeframe..

probably feeling the weakness...notice the trough swinging through the Great lakes...

Nailes South Florida:

[Scorpion]

Across SFL and into the GOM

[Wx_Warrior]

More north that run @ same time as 6z. South Florida battered (according to GFS).

[ROCK]

Clearly GOM.

Clearly slowing in the 72-84 timeframe..

missing the weakness allowing for the high to build in? Masters said this is a big mid-west high set up shop next week...


nevermind

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[jhpigott]

Clearly GOM.

Clearly slowing in the 72-84 timeframe..

probably feeling the weakness...notice the trough swinging through the Great lakes...

Nailes South Florida:

the rest of the GFS ensemble is run off the GFS, so I wonder if we will also see the GFS ensemble models trend north this run as well . . .

[Ivanhater]

Into the gulf 114 hours

[miamijaaz]

Here we go again with a shift back north with the track at 5 pm. It's going to be a long weekend.

[gatorcane]

Into the gulf 114 hours

Not quite:

[Bocadude85]

LOL im never saying a word again as soon as I think the models will continue to shift south the GFS shifts north and hits S Fla

[ROCK]

Here we go again with a shift back north with the track at 5 pm. It's going to be a long weekend.

not on one run of the GFS....

[Weatherfreak000]

I wonder if we're talking another high pressure set-up ala Rita?


That would just be utterly shocking...TYPICALLY in a normal set-up storms like this never get more west then Central LA.

If I recall a pro met around here claimed a high would block the N GOM around that time next week. So i'm just thinking of the possibilities.

[Ivanhater]

look at the surface gator..its in the gulf at 114

[gatorcane]

at 126 hours....

Ike moving NNE into weakness

All of mainland south florida would be on the bad side of the system:

[gatorcane]

look at the surface gator..its in the gulf at 114

No Ivanhater, see above.

[ROCK]

look at the surface gator..its in the gulf at 114

......you beat me to it....the vortex is over FL.....but you need to look at the surface....500MB is good at looking at the ridge....


which is wide open.....btw

[dwg71]

132 Hours still on or just off west coast of FL. Maybe just south of Tampa.

[gboudx]

I wonder if we're talking another high pressure set-up ala Rita?


That would just be utterly shocking...TYPICALLY in a normal set-up storms like this never get more west then Central LA.

If I recall a pro met around here claimed a high would block the N GOM around that time next week. So i'm just thinking of the possibilities.

Perhaps you're thinking about jeff's update.

For now will begin to entertain the idea of a large and dangerous hurricane moving through the southern Bahamas late this weekend and toward Cuba or S FL early next week. Potential seems to be increasing for Ike to enter the Gulf of Mexico and will need to closely watch a progressive but fairly strong central US high around the middle of next week for steering thereafter.