I don't like "the threat increasing father east" comment. It's early and I live in the hurricane buffer zone so I am not too concerned yet.rockyman wrote:New blog from ABC33/40 in Birmingham
"Ike Potentially Trouble"
http://www.alabamawx.com/

Moderator: S2k Moderators
I don't like "the threat increasing father east" comment. It's early and I live in the hurricane buffer zone so I am not too concerned yet.rockyman wrote:New blog from ABC33/40 in Birmingham
"Ike Potentially Trouble"
http://www.alabamawx.com/
KWT wrote:Most models seem to be closing it on either a Miami-Dada or Keys hit. Even the GFDL which is quite decently to the south of the rest of the guidence would give Key West a mighty big hit probably from the eastern side of the core.
KWT wrote:hsvwx, yep looks like Ike is now slowly heading into a region of less shear which is not a good thing for the islands in the way of it in the next 36-48hrs.
I see the SE Bahamas and the T&C have issued hurricane warnings, not all that surprising really they are needed.
Current estimate based on dropsonde would be 105kts, they could with 110kts but nothing at FL supports that sort of raise just yet...certainly surprising to see though given the presentation isn't too stunning right now though it is slowly improving.
stormchaserCP wrote:I just want to correct an error I see a lot of people here making. Assuming a particular NWP model has any skill at all, then all other factors being equal, whatever solution it has at a given time is the most likely one. Unless you're aware of a model bias that makes a particular solution unlikely (e.g. the model tends to underestimate ridges so the real track is more likely to be south of the forecast than north), then you should view that solution as the most likely outcome. The probability of the model solution nearly matching reality 5 days out is generally quite low, however, it does not change the fact that it is the *most probable* outcome based solely on that model (of course, the best forecasts use an ensemble of models). Therefore, it doesn't make sense to say that a particularly threatening 5-day model solution is a "good thing" by virtue of it being 5+ days out.
greels wrote:KWT wrote:hsvwx, yep looks like Ike is now slowly heading into a region of less shear which is not a good thing for the islands in the way of it in the next 36-48hrs.
I see the SE Bahamas and the T&C have issued hurricane warnings, not all that surprising really they are needed.
Current estimate based on dropsonde would be 105kts, they could with 110kts but nothing at FL supports that sort of raise just yet...certainly surprising to see though given the presentation isn't too stunning right now though it is slowly improving.
We do not have a hurricane "warning" here in the Turks & Caicos....it stands now at a "watch"
Why don't they upgrade it to a "warning" as we know IKE is going to hit us.
I just don't get it....
Gretchen
greels wrote:KWT wrote:hsvwx, yep looks like Ike is now slowly heading into a region of less shear which is not a good thing for the islands in the way of it in the next 36-48hrs.
I see the SE Bahamas and the T&C have issued hurricane warnings, not all that surprising really they are needed.
Current estimate based on dropsonde would be 105kts, they could with 110kts but nothing at FL supports that sort of raise just yet...certainly surprising to see though given the presentation isn't too stunning right now though it is slowly improving.
We do not have a hurricane "warning" here in the Turks & Caicos....it stands now at a "watch"
Why don't they upgrade it to a "warning" as we know IKE is going to hit us.
I just don't get it....
Gretchen
sfwx wrote:We just received this e-mail from our school district office:
While it is still far too early to predict with certainty the impact of this major hurricane on St. Lucie County I do want to pass along a couple of points I've learned today.
1) Port Everglades is closing today and gasoline supplies will become potentially limited the closer to landfall Ike gets, so top off your tanks and if you need fuel for a generator get it today or tomorrow.
2) Ike is a major hurricane, do not take it lightly, better to have over planned than be caught short. A family plan is a necessity.
3) Remember that e-banking gets interupted when power is off so if you anticipate needing cash, decide early enough to meet your needs if you use any form of ATM or e-banking services.
4) If there is a weather event that impacts us the Savannas are already full of water and only drain naturally. Another heavy rain event will assuredly cause heavy street flooding east of US 1.
5) Announcements will be forthcoming late Sunday about a more current status for schooling, sheltering etc.....so stay tuned to our website, the county website and our TV channels
Be Safe....Be Smart
Wx_Warrior wrote:To the NHC's credit, they have been pretty good with a 5-day out cone.
jlauderdal wrote:when was the last time they hit it say within 50 miles at 5 days,
jlauderdal wrote:yes they have but being at there 5 day point really isnt such a bad place to be, i guess i would rather be there than at a point say 150 miles on either side, when was the last time they hit it say within 50 miles at 5 days
Canelaw99 wrote:jlauderdal wrote:when was the last time they hit it say within 50 miles at 5 days,
Wasn't that about how accurate they were with Gustav??
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests