ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#1301 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:26 pm

LowndesCoFire wrote:Image

Hurricane Kate 1985



November, at that!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1302 Postby mattpetre » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:30 pm

Last spaghetti chart shown on TWC must have been rather old, showed about 5 or 6 headed straight to Miami and 2 or 3 headed S. of FL. through the straights... this was at 10:15. How can they be showing info that at the least was from earlier today and be touting it as gospel for model predictions? I just don't get it. BTW, I do believe the ridge protecting TX is forecast to move into the midwest according to some models... true Ed? I don't want a TX landfall and I really want Ike to just go ahead and hit somewhere and dissipate, cause I'm ready to enjoy my weekend.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1303 Postby thetruesms » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:36 pm

zeusman wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Seems reasonable. And Derek isn't just a degreed met, he is a degreed met who specializes in tropical cyclones...



That beats me.. I am a degreed met who specializes in meso scale snowfall paterns in mountainous terrain.... Perhaps I should stick to the Avalanche boards :)
But I'm a degreed met who specializes in polarimetric radar . . . does that mean I have to stick to radar boards? :eek:

I'm rather enjoying trying to decide whether or not the GFS family are overdoing the strength of the ridge rather than work on my research . . . ssh, don't tell my advisor :oops:
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#1304 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:36 pm

Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
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Re:

#1305 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:37 pm

gatorcane wrote:Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml


If these runs are further S and W I'm very comfortable a SFL EC mainland landfall is very low.
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Re: Re:

#1306 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:38 pm

Blown_away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml


If these runs are further S and W I'm very comfortable a SFL EC mainland landfall is very low.


me too..that's why I am interested in it.

If it shifts back to the eastern solution through SE then I give up :double:
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Re:

#1307 Postby thetruesms » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
Looks like it's starting to roll in . . . I like how its WSW motion through 12 hours is not as dramatic as in the 18Z run, and closer to what's really happening. Perhaps a fresh round of radiosonde and recon data is helping?
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Re: Re:

#1308 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:44 pm

thetruesms wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
Looks like it's starting to roll in . . . I like how its WSW motion through 12 hours is not as dramatic as in the 18Z run, and closer to what's really happening. Perhaps a fresh round of radiosonde and recon data is helping?


looks similar to the 12Z run so far out to 30 hours...WSW towards Cuba...so far.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1309 Postby alienstorm » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:50 pm

If you look at the GFS for 00Z it looks like the High in the Atlantic bridges with the High in the Gulf, we are only out to 42 hours approaching the NE coast of Cuba.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Re:

#1310 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:
thetruesms wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
Looks like it's starting to roll in . . . I like how its WSW motion through 12 hours is not as dramatic as in the 18Z run, and closer to what's really happening. Perhaps a fresh round of radiosonde and recon data is helping?


looks similar to the 12Z run so far out to 30 hours...WSW towards Cuba...so far.


Just think -- somewhere in the mountains above Boulder, a supercomputer thousands of times more powerful than all the computers of all the forum members put together is grunting as hard as it can trying to hammer out a track for Ike. 54 hr has it just north of Central Cuba.
Last edited by Windy on Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1311 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:52 pm

This apparent SW push of the CDO could be the needed move I said would have to happen soon if GFDL was to verify (or, really, not bust as badly). This is why I kept telling people yesterday to watch GFDL. We'll see how it resolves in terms of track.
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#1312 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:52 pm

GFS 00 UTC => IKE makes landfall in eastern Cuba at 54 hours.

This ridge is amazing.... :eek:

The SE Florida threat continues to diminish....

Let's see if it hits the Yucatan on this run.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1313 Postby tpr1967 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:53 pm

Further sw at 60hrs
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Re:

#1314 Postby StormWarning1 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFS 00 UTC => IKE makes landfall in eastern Cuba at 54 hours.

This ridge is amazing.... :eek:

The SE Florida threat continues to diminish....


Well, Cancun is in the five day cone. Perhaps cozumel next.
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Re:

#1315 Postby fci » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFS 00 UTC => IKE makes landfall in eastern Cuba at 54 hours.

This ridge is amazing.... :eek:

The SE Florida threat continues to diminish....

Let's see if it hits the Yucatan on this run.


Good, maybe Ike will have a life alterring date with the mountains of Eastern Cuba and then die.

Funny, how last week we scoffed at the notion that Hanna could cross over Cuba and now one week later, it might happen with her brother.
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#1316 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:57 pm

:uarrow:

Ike traversing the high terrain of Cuba and getting ripped apart at 66 hours.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1317 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:57 pm

Yep, GFS has Cuba acting like a giant speedbump.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1318 Postby Chigger_Lopez » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:58 pm

If Ike continues SW for that long or longer, would that not give it time to be picked up by a possible trough? Just a bad thought.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1319 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:58 pm

Is there a chance that once he gets in the GOM that he hook nne or ne due to the coming down? I see a couple of the models possibly less reliable ones bringing Ike in north of Tampa at the end of their runs. Are they seeing something close to feasible?
Last edited by otowntiger on Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:

#1320 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:58 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow:

Ike traversing the high terrain of Cuba and getting ripped apart at 66 hours.



that is a good thing.... :D
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