ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hurricane Kate 1985

November, at that!

[mattpetre]

Last spaghetti chart shown on TWC must have been rather old, showed about 5 or 6 headed straight to Miami and 2 or 3 headed S. of FL. through the straights... this was at 10:15. How can they be showing info that at the least was from earlier today and be touting it as gospel for model predictions? I just don't get it. BTW, I do believe the ridge protecting TX is forecast to move into the midwest according to some models... true Ed? I don't want a TX landfall and I really want Ike to just go ahead and hit somewhere and dissipate, cause I'm ready to enjoy my weekend.

[thetruesms]

Seems reasonable. And Derek isn't just a degreed met, he is a degreed met who specializes in tropical cyclones...

That beats me.. I am a degreed met who specializes in meso scale snowfall paterns in mountainous terrain.... Perhaps I should stick to the Avalanche boards

But I'm a degreed met who specializes in polarimetric radar . . . does that mean I have to stick to radar boards?

I'm rather enjoying trying to decide whether or not the GFS family are overdoing the strength of the ridge rather than work on my research . . . ssh, don't tell my advisor

[gatorcane]

Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Blown Away]

Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

If these runs are further S and W I'm very comfortable a SFL EC mainland landfall is very low.

[gatorcane]

Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

If these runs are further S and W I'm very comfortable a SFL EC mainland landfall is very low.

me too..that's why I am interested in it.

If it shifts back to the eastern solution through SE then I give up

[thetruesms]

Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Looks like it's starting to roll in . . . I like how its WSW motion through 12 hours is not as dramatic as in the 18Z run, and closer to what's really happening. Perhaps a fresh round of radiosonde and recon data is helping?

[gatorcane]

Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Looks like it's starting to roll in . . . I like how its WSW motion through 12 hours is not as dramatic as in the 18Z run, and closer to what's really happening. Perhaps a fresh round of radiosonde and recon data is helping?

looks similar to the 12Z run so far out to 30 hours...WSW towards Cuba...so far.

[alienstorm]

If you look at the GFS for 00Z it looks like the High in the Atlantic bridges with the High in the Gulf, we are only out to 42 hours approaching the NE coast of Cuba.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Windy]

Found it...

00 UTC GFS run will start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Looks like it's starting to roll in . . . I like how its WSW motion through 12 hours is not as dramatic as in the 18Z run, and closer to what's really happening. Perhaps a fresh round of radiosonde and recon data is helping?

looks similar to the 12Z run so far out to 30 hours...WSW towards Cuba...so far.

Just think -- somewhere in the mountains above Boulder, a supercomputer thousands of times more powerful than all the computers of all the forum members put together is grunting as hard as it can trying to hammer out a track for Ike. 54 hr has it just north of Central Cuba.

[Sanibel]

This apparent SW push of the CDO could be the needed move I said would have to happen soon if GFDL was to verify (or, really, not bust as badly). This is why I kept telling people yesterday to watch GFDL. We'll see how it resolves in terms of track.

[gatorcane]

GFS 00 UTC => IKE makes landfall in eastern Cuba at 54 hours.

This ridge is amazing....

The SE Florida threat continues to diminish....

Let's see if it hits the Yucatan on this run.

[tpr1967]

Further sw at 60hrs

[StormWarning1]

GFS 00 UTC => IKE makes landfall in eastern Cuba at 54 hours.

This ridge is amazing....

The SE Florida threat continues to diminish....

Well, Cancun is in the five day cone. Perhaps cozumel next.

[fci]

GFS 00 UTC => IKE makes landfall in eastern Cuba at 54 hours.

This ridge is amazing....

The SE Florida threat continues to diminish....

Let's see if it hits the Yucatan on this run.

Good, maybe Ike will have a life alterring date with the mountains of Eastern Cuba and then die.

Funny, how last week we scoffed at the notion that Hanna could cross over Cuba and now one week later, it might happen with her brother.

[gatorcane]

Ike traversing the high terrain of Cuba and getting ripped apart at 66 hours.

[Windy]

Yep, GFS has Cuba acting like a giant speedbump.

[Chigger_Lopez]

If Ike continues SW for that long or longer, would that not give it time to be picked up by a possible trough? Just a bad thought.

[otowntiger]

Is there a chance that once he gets in the GOM that he hook nne or ne due to the coming down? I see a couple of the models possibly less reliable ones bringing Ike in north of Tampa at the end of their runs. Are they seeing something close to feasible?

[ROCK]

:uarrow:

Ike traversing the high terrain of Cuba and getting ripped apart at 66 hours.

that is a good thing....