
Climatology becomes useless with Ike!
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KWT wrote:That would be pretty amazing but then again it seems like Haiti is sort of a hurricane magnet this year so its possible...it is diving SW again, I do wonder whether this will make it into the Caribbean now, Ike really is hualing WSW/SW right now!
caneman wrote:OK. Couple things to note here. One, I've not seen the GFS bomb a storm out like they are on the 06z run. 2nd. KWT- As some of the mets have stated watch the GFS for ridging. Well now GFS is showing a recurve in line with the GFDL. Very concerning for us in West Florida. I'll wait to to see the 06 run for GFDL though. LAst, when you look at the climatology. Notice one thing. All storms recurved except for one so it is entirely possible that IKE will recurve but further West than previous one have.
caneman wrote:Sabanic. No looking at the climatology map in an earlier post of past storms formed. Not that all have re-curved except for one.
KWT wrote:GFS overdoes the troughing on its runs, remember what it tried to do to Ike the first time round...
Anyway its looking odds on Ike will hit Cuba from this point, still too early to know what it does after then however...
caneman wrote:KWT wrote:GFS overdoes the troughing on its runs, remember what it tried to do to Ike the first time round...
Anyway its looking odds on Ike will hit Cuba from this point, still too early to know what it does after then however...
GFs also overdid the ridging just yesterday. However, GFS along with GFDL have been cited as the models of choice thus far.
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