ATL: IKE Discussion

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#3041 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:05 am

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Climatology becomes useless with Ike!
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#3042 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:07 am

That would be pretty amazing but then again it seems like Haiti is sort of a hurricane magnet this year so its possible...it is diving SW again, I do wonder whether this will make it into the Caribbean now, Ike really is hualing WSW/SW right now!
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#3043 Postby Sabanic » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:11 am

KWT wrote:That would be pretty amazing but then again it seems like Haiti is sort of a hurricane magnet this year so its possible...it is diving SW again, I do wonder whether this will make it into the Caribbean now, Ike really is hualing WSW/SW right now!


That's just what I was thinking. I don't see how those poor people can take anymore
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3044 Postby Tom8 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:11 am

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#3045 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:11 am

I'm watching Miami's Channel 7 WSVN and the reporter was interviewing people preparing for the storm and one lady said doughnuts as one of the things she bought. Exactly, there is nothing better than being inside your house passing an storm, watching the TV News coverage on the storm and eating doughnuts!
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#3046 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:21 am

There certainly needs to be some redjusttment of the track back to the west if Ike is going to totally avoid Haiti, however it probably is the case that Ike is just side stepping down WSW, we shall hve to see, right now looking more and more likely its going to come close to the mountions of eastern Cuba which will would ruin its inner core.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3047 Postby sphelps8681 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:25 am

5:00 am discussion

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recorded a maximum flight
level wind of 104 kt over the northwest quadrant and an SFMR peak
wind of 96 kt over the northeastern portion of the cyclone. Based
on these data...the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. The
aircraft meteorologist also indicated that Ike has a closed 24 nm
diameter eye. A dropsonde within the eye measured 983 mb but that
was with a surface wind of 16 kt. As a compromise...the central
pressure is adjusted slightly to 982 mb. Although northerly shear
seems to be persisting over the cyclone...it does not appear to be
affecting the inner core convection as much as it was previously.
Intensity models continue to indicate that the shear will decrease
in about 24 hours...which should allow for some strengthening
before Ike moves near or over the northern coast of Cuba. The
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous package but now
depicts some weakening as Ike traverses the Cuban coast. Of
course...any slight deviation north or south of the forecast will
either allow for strengthening over water or a longer period of
weakening over land. Later on...conditions appear rather conducive
for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico.


Initial motion is estimated at 255/14...within the deep-layer flow
of a strong ridge digging southwestward over the Bahamas...through
The Straits of Florida...and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Dynamical models suggest that the ridge will shift to a more zonal
pattern during the next 24 to 36 hours which will cause Ike to move
in a more westward fashion. Afterward...guidance indicates that
the Southwest Ridge extension over the southeastern Gulf/Straits of
Florida will erode just enough to induce a gradual turn toward the
northwest by the end of the forecast period. There is much
uncertainty in the models as to how close Ike will approach the
northern coast of Cuba. In fact...the two hurricane models
actually bring the cyclone over the island in 36 hours. Without
question...the particular track that the GFDL and HWRF are
suggesting could have a significant impact on Ike's intensity.
The official forecast is weighed heavily on the model consensus and
is adjusted just to the left of the previous advisory to compensate
for the westward-shifting model trend.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 06/0900z 22.4n 67.1w 100 kt
12hr VT 06/1800z 22.1n 69.0w 100 kt
24hr VT 07/0600z 21.8n 71.6w 100 kt
36hr VT 07/1800z 21.6n 74.1w 105 kt
48hr VT 08/0600z 21.8n 76.6w 115 kt
72hr VT 09/0600z 23.0n 80.5w 90 kt...near coast of Cuba
96hr VT 10/0600z 24.5n 83.5w 105 kt
120hr VT 11/0600z 26.0n 85.5w 110 kt
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#3048 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:31 am

The thing to note is this:

"conditions appear rather conducive
for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico."

Even IF Ike does get totally ruined onland if it gets enough time back over water there is no reason why it won't restrengthen again.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3049 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:38 am

OK. Couple things to note here. One, I've not seen the GFS bomb a storm out like they are on the 06z run. 2nd. KWT- As some of the mets have stated watch the GFS for ridging. Well now GFS is showing a recurve in line with the GFDL. Very concerning for us in West Florida. I'll wait to to see the 06 run for GFDL though. LAst, when you look at the climatology. Notice one thing. All storms recurved except for one so it is entirely possible that IKE will recurve but further West than previous one have.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3050 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:42 am

06Z GFDL not as far into Cuba and right up the west coast of Florida. It stays about 100 miles offof SWFLA but looks to get very close to Tampa. GFDL was a set the trend when it came to models shifting south I hope this is not the begining of the models seeing a weakness closer to Fla. without hitting Cuba.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3051 Postby Sabanic » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:43 am

caneman wrote:OK. Couple things to note here. One, I've not seen the GFS bomb a storm out like they are on the 06z run. 2nd. KWT- As some of the mets have stated watch the GFS for ridging. Well now GFS is showing a recurve in line with the GFDL. Very concerning for us in West Florida. I'll wait to to see the 06 run for GFDL though. LAst, when you look at the climatology. Notice one thing. All storms recurved except for one so it is entirely possible that IKE will recurve but further West than previous one have.


Is that Gustav you're talking about cm?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3052 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:45 am

Sabanic. No looking at the climatology map in an earlier post of past storms formed. Not that all have re-curved except for one.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3053 Postby Sabanic » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:47 am

caneman wrote:Sabanic. No looking at the climatology map in an earlier post of past storms formed. Not that all have re-curved except for one.


Oh okay cm. Thanks
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#3054 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:50 am

GFS overdoes the troughing on its runs, remember what it tried to do to Ike the first time round...

Anyway its looking odds on Ike will hit Cuba from this point, still too early to know what it does after then however...
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3055 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:50 am

GFDL has been decent so far...
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Re:

#3056 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:52 am

KWT wrote:GFS overdoes the troughing on its runs, remember what it tried to do to Ike the first time round...

Anyway its looking odds on Ike will hit Cuba from this point, still too early to know what it does after then however...


GFs also overdid the ridging just yesterday. However, GFS along with GFDL have been cited as the models of choice thus far.
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#3057 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:58 am

Well the GFS has been rubbish for Ike thus far, however the GFDL, as Ed has said has been much better and sso I'm paying closer attention to that plus the ECM which have nailed it so far...

Anyway Vis imagery shows the core still hasn't reorganised a great deal, got a flabby looking eye that doesn't seem to look too impressive yet...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3058 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:58 am

looks to be just a tad below the forecast points.. could correct later on, maybe not.. fwiw

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html
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Re: Re:

#3059 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:59 am

caneman wrote:
KWT wrote:GFS overdoes the troughing on its runs, remember what it tried to do to Ike the first time round...

Anyway its looking odds on Ike will hit Cuba from this point, still too early to know what it does after then however...


GFs also overdid the ridging just yesterday. However, GFS along with GFDL have been cited as the models of choice thus far.


Not sure it makes the 0Z runs tonight, but the 6Z runs tomorrow for sure. A mid-level USAF mission and a high level Gulfstream mission both scheduled to leave at 1730Z, so questions about the ridge should be at least somewhat cleared up. Even if data doesn't make 0Z models tonight, NHC forecasters writing 5 pm EDT and 11 pm EDT advisories should know, based on the high and mid level recon data, if the 12Z and 18Z models have accurate initialization, and be able to adjust their thinking accordingly.


We should have a much better idea if my gut of Mobile to Tampa is correct tomorrow.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#3060 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:02 am

I wouldn't say ECM has nailed it, with it's two day holiday of a North Carolina to New York storm now over, and a swing between SW Louisiana now to the TX/MX border.


Anyway, as this is almost model thread stuff, to make this worthy of the main thread

Image

Edit to add: -80º tops!

Image
Last edited by Ed Mahmoud on Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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