ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

How often does Cuba get hit from the North side? Is there a coastal slide like often happens in the GOM as it interacts with land?

It would be the first time ever that Cuba may be hit by a Major Hurricane moving from the Eastnortheast.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, a Category 3 hurricane did affect Cuba from the east in 1888:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1888/4/track.gif

[fasterdisaster]

Actually, a Category 3 hurricane did affect Cuba from the east in 1888:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1888/4/track.gif

That's E to ESE though, Ike will prob be the first from the ENE.

[Sanibel]

There's your monster opening its eye with that classic nautilus, cornucopia shape many historic hurricanes in this area show.

[Nimbus]

Ike looks like he has slowed down to about 12 MPH which could mean the ridge steering is weakening. I have not seen enough variation from the official track to comment yet, but a slowdown in forward motion is often a signal for a change in direction.

Maybe its worth staying up late and wobble watching till the G IV flight data comes in?

[shah8]

It is definitly slowing, compared to 3-4 hours ago, and it was slowing then as well.

[jinftl]

Tropical storm winds extend out 140 miles form the center of ike...while chances for a disastrous south florida landfall are comfortably in check, we still may have to contend with squally weather with tropical storm force gusts, the threat of tornadoes, etc.....and that is even with ike getting no closer staying far to our west..even 200 miles or so.

The right side of the storm is the 'dirty' side....we could miss the eye by 200 miles and still have a very squally blustery day on tuesday or wednesday. Not a doomsday scenario by any means....but a nasty day....like we had with Fay, even Gustav and Hanna to some extent.

Max Mayfield just stated "We need to keep a close eye on any slow downs with Ike and the models tonight with the 5am advisory will provide crucial information as they will have ingested critical information from recon today. Also noted, that ALL computer models forecasted a typhoon to miss the phillipines early this year with a turn to the north which never materialized and they took a direct hit" Exerpt from the local special with max at 8pm.

thanks for posting that. Not very comforting for those in Miami, but I am glad he is watching this so closely. I think everyone will be glad when it is past there latitude~

[JtSmarts]

There's your monster opening its eye with that classic nautilus, cornucopia shape many historic hurricanes in this area show.

Definitely a classic looking storm!

[Frank P]

Center looks to be due east of the Little Inagua Island



NHC forecast plots traverse over the Great Inagua Island just below Little Inagua Island

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Up here in Portland Maine we (the Redcross) are preparing to send a team down to where ever Ike makes landfall. I am not sure yet if I will be a part of that team or not.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow...I'm not too sure but I just looked at the water vapor loop for the West Atlantic and it appears to me that Ike COULD possibly make it as far South as the Caribbean Sea. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html You can clearly see the high pressure squeezing down on him from the North and it actually has become evident to the west and Northwest of him. I think that this is partly causing the slowdown in forward speed. Right now the big Bermuda H has become Florida's best friend...

SFT

[MBryant]

Am I imagining two vortexes in the eye?

[fasterdisaster]

Ike looks like he has slowed down to about 12 MPH which could mean the ridge steering is weakening. I have not seen enough variation from the official track to comment yet, but a slowdown in forward motion is often a signal for a change in direction.

Maybe its worth staying up late and wobble watching till the G IV flight data comes in?

He was actually 12 mph before so he might be 10 mph now.

[jinftl]

Staring at a montior and wobble watching too long can cause that....don't worry, i am sure you only have one vortex in your eye.


sorry....couldn't resist.... ;p

Am I imagining two vortexes in the eye?

[physicx07]

Ike looks like he has slowed down to about 12 MPH which could mean the ridge steering is weakening. I have not seen enough variation from the official track to comment yet, but a slowdown in forward motion is often a signal for a change in direction.

Maybe its worth staying up late and wobble watching till the G IV flight data comes in?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

I think it may be slowing down due to a southwestward extension of the mean layer ridge. My feeling is that it won't change direction much, though maybe slightly more south component. I think it will just slow down for a little bit. Not good for T&Caicos!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Wow...I'm not too sure but I just looked at the water vapor loop for the West Atlantic and it appears to me that Ike COULD possibly make it as far South as the Caribbean Sea. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html You can clearly see the high pressure squeezing down on him from the North and it actually has become evident to the west and Northwest of him. I think that this is partly causing the slowdown in forward speed. Right now the big Bermuda H has become Florida's best friend...

SFT

Yes maybe for Florida but I am really worried about N.O. Those levees just barely held during Gustav. They would not be able to with stand another blow from an even more powerful Hurricane so soon after Gustav!

[jlauderdal]

Actually, a Category 3 hurricane did affect Cuba from the east in 1888:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1888/4/track.gif

...was that really the only time a major hit from the NE, considering how often they get hit im surprised but i guess it shows how rare this wsw motion is

[Stormcenter]

Wow...I'm not too sure but I just looked at the water vapor loop for the West Atlantic and it appears to me that Ike COULD possibly make it as far South as the Caribbean Sea. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html You can clearly see the high pressure squeezing down on him from the North and it actually has become evident to the west and Northwest of him. I think that this is partly causing the slowdown in forward speed. Right now the big Bermuda H has become Florida's best friend...

SFT

Yes maybe for Florida but I am really worried about N.O. Those levees just barely held during Gustav. They would not be able to with stand another blow from an even more powerful Hurricane so soon after Gustav!

The levees did not barely hold during Gustav. Anyway I don't believe N.O. will be Ike's final landfall and I also don't believe
(like Gustav) he will anything close to what he is now. IMO

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

a slow down now could give that front a chance to make it further into the gulf by the end of the forecast period. GFS sees it there already, shunting Ike to north central gulf cuz of it. Euro sees it, but doesn't think it will get there in time to affect Ike's landfall. But that is if Ike maintains steady speed. This slowing may through off the timing of the front, for both of those models.

I can't wait for the GIV info to know more! aargh this stuff drives me crazy! -but I love it! As long as people don't get hurt.

[Sanibel]

I think maybe the eye was just busting out when it suddenly had a Hispaniola mountain-caused inhibition hit it.

If I came back from somewhere out of touch and saw that still IR shot of Ike my eyes would pop out because most tracks would involve a threat to Florida from that spot.