ATL: IKE Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3781 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:56 pm

MBryant wrote:How often does Cuba get hit from the North side? Is there a coastal slide like often happens in the GOM as it interacts with land?


It would be the first time ever that Cuba may be hit by a Major Hurricane moving from the Eastnortheast.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3782 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:58 pm

Actually, a Category 3 hurricane did affect Cuba from the east in 1888:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1888/4/track.gif
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3783 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:59 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Actually, a Category 3 hurricane did affect Cuba from the east in 1888:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1888/4/track.gif


That's E to ESE though, Ike will prob be the first from the ENE.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3784 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:04 pm

There's your monster opening its eye with that classic nautilus, cornucopia shape many historic hurricanes in this area show.
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#3785 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:05 pm

Ike looks like he has slowed down to about 12 MPH which could mean the ridge steering is weakening. I have not seen enough variation from the official track to comment yet, but a slowdown in forward motion is often a signal for a change in direction.

Maybe its worth staying up late and wobble watching till the G IV flight data comes in?
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#3786 Postby shah8 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:06 pm

It is definitly slowing, compared to 3-4 hours ago, and it was slowing then as well.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3787 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:07 pm

Tropical storm winds extend out 140 miles form the center of ike...while chances for a disastrous south florida landfall are comfortably in check, we still may have to contend with squally weather with tropical storm force gusts, the threat of tornadoes, etc.....and that is even with ike getting no closer staying far to our west..even 200 miles or so.

The right side of the storm is the 'dirty' side....we could miss the eye by 200 miles and still have a very squally blustery day on tuesday or wednesday. Not a doomsday scenario by any means....but a nasty day....like we had with Fay, even Gustav and Hanna to some extent.

artist wrote:
Vortex wrote:Max Mayfield just stated "We need to keep a close eye on any slow downs with Ike and the models tonight with the 5am advisory will provide crucial information as they will have ingested critical information from recon today. Also noted, that ALL computer models forecasted a typhoon to miss the phillipines early this year with a turn to the north which never materialized and they took a direct hit" Exerpt from the local special with max at 8pm.


thanks for posting that. Not very comforting for those in Miami, but I am glad he is watching this so closely. I think everyone will be glad when it is past there latitude~
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3788 Postby JtSmarts » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:08 pm

Sanibel wrote:There's your monster opening its eye with that classic nautilus, cornucopia shape many historic hurricanes in this area show.

Image

Definitely a classic looking storm!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3789 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:08 pm

Center looks to be due east of the Little Inagua Island

Image

NHC forecast plots traverse over the Great Inagua Island just below Little Inagua Island
Last edited by Frank P on Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3790 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:09 pm

Up here in Portland Maine we (the Redcross) are preparing to send a team down to where ever Ike makes landfall. I am not sure yet if I will be a part of that team or not.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3791 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:11 pm

Wow...I'm not too sure but I just looked at the water vapor loop for the West Atlantic and it appears to me that Ike COULD possibly make it as far South as the Caribbean Sea. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html You can clearly see the high pressure squeezing down on him from the North and it actually has become evident to the west and Northwest of him. I think that this is partly causing the slowdown in forward speed. Right now the big Bermuda H has become Florida's best friend... :clap:

SFT
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3792 Postby MBryant » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:11 pm

Am I imagining two vortexes in the eye?
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Re:

#3793 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:13 pm

Nimbus wrote:Ike looks like he has slowed down to about 12 MPH which could mean the ridge steering is weakening. I have not seen enough variation from the official track to comment yet, but a slowdown in forward motion is often a signal for a change in direction.

Maybe its worth staying up late and wobble watching till the G IV flight data comes in?


He was actually 12 mph before so he might be 10 mph now.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3794 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:13 pm

Staring at a montior and wobble watching too long can cause that....don't worry, i am sure you only have one vortex in your eye.


sorry....couldn't resist.... ;p

MBryant wrote:Am I imagining two vortexes in the eye?
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Re:

#3795 Postby physicx07 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:14 pm

Nimbus wrote:Ike looks like he has slowed down to about 12 MPH which could mean the ridge steering is weakening. I have not seen enough variation from the official track to comment yet, but a slowdown in forward motion is often a signal for a change in direction.

Maybe its worth staying up late and wobble watching till the G IV flight data comes in?


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

I think it may be slowing down due to a southwestward extension of the mean layer ridge. My feeling is that it won't change direction much, though maybe slightly more south component. I think it will just slow down for a little bit. Not good for T&Caicos!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3796 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:15 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Wow...I'm not too sure but I just looked at the water vapor loop for the West Atlantic and it appears to me that Ike COULD possibly make it as far South as the Caribbean Sea. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html You can clearly see the high pressure squeezing down on him from the North and it actually has become evident to the west and Northwest of him. I think that this is partly causing the slowdown in forward speed. Right now the big Bermuda H has become Florida's best friend... :clap:

SFT


Yes maybe for Florida but I am really worried about N.O. Those levees just barely held during Gustav. They would not be able to with stand another blow from an even more powerful Hurricane so soon after Gustav!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3797 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:15 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Actually, a Category 3 hurricane did affect Cuba from the east in 1888:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1888/4/track.gif


...was that really the only time a major hit from the NE, considering how often they get hit im surprised but i guess it shows how rare this wsw motion is
Last edited by senorpepr on Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: off-topic political comment
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3798 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:20 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Wow...I'm not too sure but I just looked at the water vapor loop for the West Atlantic and it appears to me that Ike COULD possibly make it as far South as the Caribbean Sea. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html You can clearly see the high pressure squeezing down on him from the North and it actually has become evident to the west and Northwest of him. I think that this is partly causing the slowdown in forward speed. Right now the big Bermuda H has become Florida's best friend... :clap:

SFT


Yes maybe for Florida but I am really worried about N.O. Those levees just barely held during Gustav. They would not be able to with stand another blow from an even more powerful Hurricane so soon after Gustav!


The levees did not barely hold during Gustav. Anyway I don't believe N.O. will be Ike's final landfall and I also don't believe
(like Gustav) he will anything close to what he is now. IMO
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3799 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:21 pm

a slow down now could give that front a chance to make it further into the gulf by the end of the forecast period. GFS sees it there already, shunting Ike to north central gulf cuz of it. Euro sees it, but doesn't think it will get there in time to affect Ike's landfall. But that is if Ike maintains steady speed. This slowing may through off the timing of the front, for both of those models.

I can't wait for the GIV info to know more! aargh this stuff drives me crazy! -but I love it! As long as people don't get hurt.
Last edited by TreasureIslandFLGal on Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#3800 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:21 pm

I think maybe the eye was just busting out when it suddenly had a Hispaniola mountain-caused inhibition hit it.

If I came back from somewhere out of touch and saw that still IR shot of Ike my eyes would pop out because most tracks would involve a threat to Florida from that spot.
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