ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Well clearly the Keys are still in the cone so it makes sense to issue a hurricane watch for them though personally I'll be surprised if ends up getting that far north its better to be safe then sorry.

Still got that surve to the WNW at the end of the NHC forecast I see...

[Chacor]

Do you have anything to prove Ike will be a TS over Cuba? Cat 4 to TS weakening isn't really common in such a short space of time.

[El Nino]

Obviously, more than a day, maybe 2, is a short space of time

[dizzyfish]

Well, the track didn't shift at 11. I did notice it seems as if Ike has expanded some and they note that the H force winds are out 60 miles now so I guess he is growing. Dang it.

I will be really interested to see the next model runs and what recon brings back later today.

[Chacor]

Obviously, more than a day, maybe 2, is a short space of time

Don't you require a personal forecast disclaimer rather than just saying it'll definitely be a TS?

[KWT]

Do you have anything to prove Ike will be a TS over Cuba? Cat 4 to TS weakening isn't really common in such a short space of time.

Well aruge with the pro met wxman57 as well then...
I think its pretty common for a hurricane to weaken to a TS after 36hrs overland...

However given its strength it may well stays a hurricane, thatys the offical forecast though note they are at 65kts so they are clearly hedging thier bets...

[Chacor]

Do you have anything to prove Ike will be a TS over Cuba? Cat 4 to TS weakening isn't really common in such a short space of time.

Well aruge with the pro met wxman57 as well then...
I think its pretty common for a hurricane to weaken to a TS after 36hrs overland!

My point was that he (El Nino) was supposed to put the disclaimer on it, as with any other personal forecast.

[Max_Power]

So looking at climo nearly every track where Ike is has affected Fl or recurved east of FL....

Only one system managed to go further west.

I hope these models have it right.

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but neither Fay or Gustav followed the climo models either.

[Aristotle]

i get the feeling ike is gonna lose a lot of its organization as it passes over cuba, obviously from the interaction with land, but also because of the super dry air wrapping around the north and west side of the storm. it's too early to say if that could be the gulf coast's saving grace, especially since ike will have plenty of time to reorganize over the gulf next week.

Purdue,
I think your right. It hasn't got into the core yet but it looks like the finger of God kinda putting a cap on the cane! Good Eye!

[cycloneye]

10:45 AM EDT:

[jenshops]

Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?

[KWT]

Looks like just recently its been on a near west motion, just a tiny bit south of west...heading close to Banes Cuba based on the NHC track.

[StJoe]

Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?

Ummmm, no!

[KWT]

Well western Florida and the panhandle aren't totally out of the wodds yet, indeed the panhandle still has a realisitic chance of being hit, western Florida looks ok but still too soon to know for sure so keep track.

[StJoe]

The next 18-24 hours will be very important to all from the Keys to south mainland Florida. We really need to keep an eye on Ike, imho...maybe that's why Mad Max keeps telling us to do that.

[amanda]

Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?

Ummmm, no!

all it takes is one or two unexpected wobbles and that shifts the whole cone. keep that in mind. the only thing completely certain is where this hurricane is right now.

[StJoe]

A storm as big as Ike is getting, east and south of us always bears watching. Just keep an eye on him today into tomorrow. This storm is very diffilcult for the NHC.

[stormchazer]

Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?

I think things look good but you should always keep an eye on a TC near your location. Things can and sometimes do change quickly. I think the setup here looks good for Florida (except the Keys of course).

[KWT]

The thing to remember is that the hurricane track for the next 24hrs is looking pretty solid and not one model is even close now really to Florida, though the keys are still close enough to need watching.

[Sabanic]

I almost have the feeling that from LA/MS Eastward can feel pretty clear now.