ATL: IKE Discussion
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- El Nino
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
Obviously, more than a day, maybe 2, is a short space of time 

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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
Well, the track didn't shift at 11. I did notice it seems as if Ike has expanded some and they note that the H force winds are out 60 miles now so I guess he is growing. Dang it.
I will be really interested to see the next model runs and what recon brings back later today.
I will be really interested to see the next model runs and what recon brings back later today.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
El Nino wrote:Obviously, more than a day, maybe 2, is a short space of time
Don't you require a personal forecast disclaimer rather than just saying it'll definitely be a TS?
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Re:
Chacor wrote:Do you have anything to prove Ike will be a TS over Cuba? Cat 4 to TS weakening isn't really common in such a short space of time.
Well aruge with the pro met wxman57 as well then...
I think its pretty common for a hurricane to weaken to a TS after 36hrs overland...
However given its strength it may well stays a hurricane, thatys the offical forecast though note they are at 65kts so they are clearly hedging thier bets...
Last edited by KWT on Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:
KWT wrote:Chacor wrote:Do you have anything to prove Ike will be a TS over Cuba? Cat 4 to TS weakening isn't really common in such a short space of time.
Well aruge with the pro met wxman57 as well then...
I think its pretty common for a hurricane to weaken to a TS after 36hrs overland!
My point was that he (El Nino) was supposed to put the disclaimer on it, as with any other personal forecast.
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- Max_Power
- Tropical Wave
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:So looking at climo nearly every track where Ike is has affected Fl or recurved east of FL....
Only one system managed to go further west.
I hope these models have it right.
I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but neither Fay or Gustav followed the climo models either.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
PurdueWx80 wrote:i get the feeling ike is gonna lose a lot of its organization as it passes over cuba, obviously from the interaction with land, but also because of the super dry air wrapping around the north and west side of the storm. it's too early to say if that could be the gulf coast's saving grace, especially since ike will have plenty of time to reorganize over the gulf next week.
Purdue,
I think your right. It hasn't got into the core yet but it looks like the finger of God kinda putting a cap on the cane! Good Eye!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
jenshops wrote:Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?
Ummmm, no!

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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
The next 18-24 hours will be very important to all from the Keys to south mainland Florida. We really need to keep an eye on Ike, imho...maybe that's why Mad Max keeps telling us to do that.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
StJoe wrote:jenshops wrote:Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?
Ummmm, no!
all it takes is one or two unexpected wobbles and that shifts the whole cone. keep that in mind. the only thing completely certain is where this hurricane is right now.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
A storm as big as Ike is getting, east and south of us always bears watching. Just keep an eye on him today into tomorrow. This storm is very diffilcult for the NHC.
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- stormchazer
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
jenshops wrote:Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?
I think things look good but you should always keep an eye on a TC near your location. Things can and sometimes do change quickly. I think the setup here looks good for Florida (except the Keys of course).
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- Sabanic
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
I almost have the feeling that from LA/MS Eastward can feel pretty clear now.
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